USD continues to dominate with exception being against the EUR. USDCAD (+0.70%) is trading at 11.5 year highs as OIL (-2.17%) collapsed to a 7 year low. BRTUSD (-1.61%) is also posting new multi-year lows. Commodity currencies in general are suffering on the back of weaker oil prices as can be seen from AUDUSD (-0.81%). The rout in commodities has influenced also global indices as energy stocks are being hammered. EURUSD on the other hand has proved to be resilient to the USD strength (+0.45%). A possible reason for this is probably the inverse correlation of EURUSD with German DAX. As the German stock index has fallen today (-2%) EURUSD has risen all the way to 1.0898. Same picture is visible in CHF and JPY as both currencies are resilient versus USD. There are two main high impacted news events which can effect on US Dollar movement for this week: US retail Sales & Consumer Confidence on Friday.
Trading quote of the day: “To be a good trader, you need to trade with your eyes open, recognize real trends and turns, and not waste time or energy on regrets and wishful thinking.” – Alexander Elder
Currency Updates:
USD/CHF
Pivot: 1.0035
Likley scenario: short positions below 1.0035 with targets @ 0.9945 & 0.987 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.0035 look for further upside with 1.0115 & 1.0175 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is badly directed.
EUR/USD
Pivot: 1.09
Likley scenario: short positions below 1.09 with targets @ 1.0825 & 1.076 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.09 look for further upside with 1.098 & 1.109 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.
USD/JPY
Pivot: 122.9
Likley scenario: long positions above 122.9 with targets @ 123.2 & 123.55 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 122.9 look for further downside with 122.7 & 122.45 as targets.
Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
GBP/USD
Pivot: 1.5055
Likley scenario: short positions below 1.5055 with targets @ 1.4955 & 1.4905 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.5055 look for further upside with 1.509 & 1.5115 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is badly directed.
AUD/USD
Pivot: 0.725
Likley scenario: short positions below 0.725 with targets @ 0.719 & 0.7165 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 0.725 look for further upside with 0.7285 & 0.732 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
GOLD
Pivot: 1078
Likley scenario: short positions below 1078 with targets @ 1065.5 & 1058 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1078 look for further upside with 1082 & 1088 as targets.
Comment: as long as 1078 is resistance, likely decline to 1065.5.
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