US jobless claims rose for the first time in 5 months to 282k and EURUSD recovered over the 50 Day MA after the data located at 1.0953. Oil prices (-1.46%) moved into the red, hitting new 7 year lows, after OPEC monthly report, showed its own output rose. GOLD is unchanged at 1071 while commodity currency AUDUSD (+0.94) is the strongest currency of the day after jobs data in Australia surprised to the upside. Following in the footsteps of last week’s ECB meeting when Mario Draghi disappointed financial markets, the Swiss National Bank announced this morning that its rates will remain on hold. Bank of England rate decision was a non-event and as a result the GBPUSD remains flat on the day at 1.5170. Indices are trading higher, with German DAX (+1.21%) leading the way.
Trading quote of the day: “A lot of people get so enmeshed in the markets that they lose their perspective. Working longer does not necessarily equate with working smarter. In fact, sometimes is the other way around.” – Martin Schwartz, in Pit Bull
Currency Updates:
OIL
Pivot: 38.6
Our preference: short positions below 38.6 with targets @ 36.6 & 35.9 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 38.6 look for further upside with 39.2 & 39.8 as targets.
Comment: as long as 38.6 is resistance, likely decline to 36.6.
EUR/USD
Pivot: 1.104
Likely scenario: short positions below 1.104 with targets @ 1.09 & 1.086 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.104 look for further upside with 1.109 & 1.115 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is badly directed.
USD/JPY
Pivot: 121.95
Likely scenario: short positions below 121.95 with targets @ 121 & 120.55 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 121.95 look for further upside with 122.45 & 122.7 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is badly directed.
GBP/USD
Pivot: 1.511
Likely scenario: long positions above 1.511 with targets @ 1.52 & 1.5245 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.511 look for further downside with 1.5075 & 1.5035 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.
AUD/USD
Pivot: 0.725
Likely scenario: long positions above 0.725 with targets @ 0.7335 & 0.737 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 0.725 look for further downside with 0.7205 & 0.718 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is well directed.
GOLD
Pivot: 1068
Likely scenario: long positions above 1068 with targets @ 1085.5 & 1089 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1068 look for further downside with 1064 & 1058 as targets.
Comment: a support base at 1068 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
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