It’s a quiet start to the trading month, however there were some notable moves that should be mentioned. Once again OIL (-0.87%) made a new multiyear low after bottoming at 34.51. The post financial crisis low was $32.40 in December 2008. Brent crude LCOc1 also fell by 3.4% to below $36.70 a barrel for the first time since December 2008. As a result EU Stock markets once again turned into negative territory despite a positive open. Elsewhere, USDCAD is marching higher on the weak oil prices which are hurting the Canadian Economy. Gold remains unchanged on the day, despite Silver positing a new 6 year low. The negative stock market sentiment is helping lift the EURUSD which has an inverse correlation with global stock sentiment lately. EUR/USD bounced from daily lows at the 1.0945 zone, but failed to break above the 1.0990 level and was confined to a phase of consolidation as investors refrain from taking big positions ahead of the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday.
Trading quote of the day: Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected. George Soros
Currency Updates:
OIL
Pivot: 35.6
Our preference: short positions below 35.6 with targets @ 33.95 & 33.5 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 35.6 look for further upside with 36.4 & 36.9 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
EUR/USD
Pivot: 1.0925
Likely scenario: long positions above 1.0925 with targets @ 1.103 & 1.1075 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.0925 look for further downside with 1.088 & 1.084 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is well directed.
USD/JPY
Pivot: 121.35
Likely scenario: short positions below 121.35 with targets @ 120.55 & 120.15 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 121.35 look for further upside with 121.85 & 122.25 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
GBP/USD
Pivot: 1.5205
Likely scenario: short positions below 1.5205 with targets @ 1.508 & 1.5035 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.5205 look for further upside with 1.5245 & 1.531 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is badly directed.
AUD/USD
Pivot: 0.724
Likely scenario: short positions below 0.724 with targets @ 0.715 & 0.713 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 0.724 look for further upside with 0.727 & 0.731 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
GOLD
Pivot: 1065.5
Likely scenario: long positions above 1065.5 with targets @ 1077.5 & 1081.5 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1065.5 look for further downside with 1058 & 1052 as targets.
Comment: intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.
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