Yesterday was a quiet start of the market for Christmas Week. Everyone has been turning into the holiday season mood and many desks has already thinning out until after New Year’s. The USD performance was mixed with the EUR underpinned by demand regardless of the Spanish election deadlock. Brent oil prices hit the 11 year low overnight, which leads us to think back of the recent catalysts including OPEC abandoning output limits in an early December meeting, and the US lifting of a 40-year ban on crude exports. As the supply is increasing, demand may even see a decline when global economy is easing (especially in China and Eurozone). An overnight report of a warm Northern hemisphere summer wouldn’t have helped the matters.
Today no significant data will be released in Australia. Focus will be on the UK-Gfk consumer confidence for December, China-conference Board Leading index for November, and the US Q3 GDP at midnight.
Trading quote of the day: What seems too high and risky to the majority generally goes higher and what seems low and cheap generally goes lower. William O’Neil
Currency Updates:
EUR/USD
Pivot: 1.0845
Our preference: long positions above 1.0845 with targets @ 1.095 & 1.098 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.0845 look for further downside with 1.08 & 1.075 as targets.
Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Supports and resistances:
1.101 ***
1.098 ***
1.095 ***
1.0909 Last
1.0845 ***
1.08 **
1.075 ***
USD/JPY
Pivot: 121.75
Our preference: short positions below 121.75 with targets @ 120.85 & 120.55 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 121.75 look for further upside with 122.15 & 122.6 as targets.
Comment: a break below 120.85 would trigger a drop towards 120.55.
Supports and resistances:
122.6 **
122.15 **
121.75 ***
121.23 Last
120.85 **
120.55 ***
120.3 ***
GBP/USD
Pivot: 1.495
Our preference: short positions below 1.495 with targets @ 1.4865 & 1.48 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.495 look for further upside with 1.499 & 1.504 as targets.
Comment: a break below 1.4865 would trigger a drop towards 1.48.
Supports and resistances:
1.504 *
1.499 *
1.495 ***
1.4885 Last
1.4865 **
1.48 **
1.476 **
AUD/USD
Pivot: 0.715
Our preference: long positions above 0.715 with targets @ 0.72 & 0.7235 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 0.715 look for further downside with 0.711 & 0.709 as targets.
Comment: technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.
Supports and resistances:
0.728 ***
0.7235 ***
0.72 ***
0.7186 Last
0.715 ***
0.711 ***
0.709 ***
SPI 200 (ASX)
Pivot: 5010
Our preference: long positions above 5010 with targets @ 5107 & 5130 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 5010 look for further downside with 4960 & 4920 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.
Supports and resistances:
5160
5130
5107
5044 Last
5010
4960
4920
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