Daily Outlook

January 8, 2016

Today the focus will remain on China. Yesterday the CSI300 Index plunged 7%, triggering the circuit breakers, sending traders home with the shortest day of trading in its history. Brokers in China are tipped to pack their lunch as officials suspend the circuit breaker rule in favour of free market adjustments. The PBoc continued its devaluation of the Yuan, fixing higher again at USD6.5646 from USD 6.5314, widening the onshore-offshore spread.

These developments in China are sending ripples throughout the global economy, increasing volatility and market nervousness. It comes as no surprise that the Eurozone Indexes continued to bleed overnight, with the DAX down more than 3%, UK FTSE and France’s CACC40 down over 2.5%.

OIL prices broke through its GFC low (USD$32.40/b) to a tough US$32.10/b, however closed a little higher. Back at home, the release of Retail Sales data had a net zero impact as figures came in at expectation. As OIL prices struggle to find their low, downward pressure on the dollar is tipped to remain as uncertainty in China continues.

Trading quote of the day: “Volatility is greatest at turning points, diminishing as a new trend becomes established.” – George Soros

Currency Updates:

EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 1.0825

Our preference: long positions above 1.0825 with targets @ 1.0945 & 1.099 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.0825 look for further downside with 1.077 & 1.071 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Supports and resistances:
1.1035 ***
1.099 ***
1.0945 ***
1.092 Last
1.0825 ***
1.077 ***
1.071 **

                         

USD/JPY Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 118.3

Our preference: short positions below 118.3 with targets @ 117.25 & 116.75 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 118.3 look for further upside with 118.8 & 119.3 as targets.

Comment: a break below 117.25 would trigger a drop towards 116.75.

Supports and resistances:
119.3 ***
118.8 ***
118.3 ***
117.61 Last
117.25 **
116.75 ***
116.1 ***
                                               

GBP/USD Intraday: continuation of the rebound.

Pivot: 1.455

Our preference: long positions above 1.455 with targets @ 1.4645 & 1.468 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.455 look for further downside with 1.45 & 1.4475 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a rebound.

Supports and resistances:
1.4725 ***
1.468 **
1.4645 ***
1.4627 Last
1.455 **
1.45 **
1.4475 **
                                               

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 0.706

Our preference: short positions below 0.706 with targets @ 0.6975 & 0.693 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 0.706 look for further upside with 0.7130 & 0.7175 as targets.

Comment: as long as 0.706 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Supports and resistances:
0.7175 ***
0.7130 ***
0.706 ***
0.7018 Last
0.6975 ***
0.693 **
0.69 ***

          

SPI 200‏ (ASX)‏ (H6) Intraday: key resistance at 4975.

Pivot: 4975

Our preference: short positions below 4975 with targets @ 4880 & 4850 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 4975 look for further upside with 5040 & 5100 as targets.

Comment: the index currently faces a challenging resistance area at 4975.

Supports and resistances:
5100
5040
4975
4937 Last
4880
4850
4820
                                               

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