Daily Outlook

January 13, 2016

European stocks are trading higher on Tuesday as news that China will step up its defense of the Yuan stabilized financial markets. Further positive car makers data helped Eurozone markets, with Germany’s DAX in particular, which saw it climb more than 2% recovering some of its 2016 losses to date.

GBPUSD’s misery continued this morning, as manufacturing data from UK came in very poor compared to forecast resulting in the pair again posting a fresh 4.5 year low, at one point reaching 1.4413.

Confidence appears fragile as weak commodity prices remain a key point of focus. Commodity prices remain under pressure, with Brent and WTI slipping -3.2% and -4% respectively. Oil prices dipped below their $30 resistance level as crude oil inventory data released by American Petroleum Institute (API) fell short of market expectations. Further downside is expected as the EIA cuts its global oil demand forecast from 95.22 to 95.19 million barrels a day while increasing global production forecasts by 0.14 million barrels a day.

Following mild risk appetite, Gold has lost some of its shine as it slipped back to 1086 at time of writing as investors shift focus to riskier assets, albeit temporarily at least.

Trading quote of the day: “Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.” – Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator

Currency Updates:

EUR/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.0885.

Pivot: 1.0885

Our preference: short positions below 1.0885 with targets @ 1.0815 & 1.077 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.0885 look for further upside with 1.091 & 1.0945 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum. The pair is trading within a bearish channel.

Supports and resistances:
1.0945 ***
1.091 ***
1.0885 ***
1.0848 Last
1.0815 ***
1.077 ***
1.074 ***

 

USD/JPY Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 117.95

Our preference: short positions below 117.95 with targets @ 117.15 & 116.7 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 117.95 look for further upside with 118.8 & 119.3 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is capped by a declining trend line.

Supports and resistances:
119.3 ***
118.8 ***
117.95 ***
117.74 Last
117.15 ***
116.7 ***
116.1 ***
                                               

GBP/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 1.4475

Our preference: short positions below 1.4475 with targets @ 1.44 & 1.435 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.4475 look for further upside with 1.4515 & 1.456 as targets.

Comment: as long as 1.4475 is resistance, expect a return to 1.44.

Supports and resistances:
1.456 ***
1.4515 ***
1.4475 ***
1.4439 Last
1.44 *
1.435 *
1.43 *

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 0.6965

Our preference: long positions above 0.6965 with targets @ 0.704 & 0.7065 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.6965 look for further downside with 0.6935 & 0.6915 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.

Supports and resistances:
0.7085 ***
0.7065 ***
0.704 ***
0.7003 Last
0.6965 ***
0.6935 ***
0.6915 **

SPI 200‏ (ASX)‏ (H6) Intraday: key resistance at 4947.

Pivot: 4947

Our preference: short positions below 4947 with targets @ 4823 & 4750 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 4947 look for further upside with 5040 & 5100 as targets.

Comment: as long as 4947 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Supports and resistances:
5100
5040
4947
4883 Last
4823
4750
4700

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