Daily Outlook

January 14, 2016

Following the positive trade data from China and its currency stability, optimism spilled over to European markets for a positive start as leading indexes look set to post gains for the 3rd straight day with Germany’s DAX and UKs FTSE both trading up over 1%, despite the decline in Chinese equities overnight. However, once the US market opened, those gains were fail to restore and closed up mildly in the black with CAC40 0.3%, FTSE 100 0.5%, and DAX down 0.3%.

Oil has been doing its best to stage a fightback and was edged up above $31 as sentiment shifts slightly towards a more upbeat outlook for the short term. This recovery didn’t last long as well after the releasing of US oil inventories data early this morning, which saw OIL give up most of its gains.

Regarding to currencies, the worsening sentiment put a bid into JPY, and EUR benefited on a growing sense that the Fed may back off from hiking rate after the Beige Book report. Commodity currencies has been carrying pressures with AUD, NZD and CAD keep falling.

Today’s focus will be on Australia employment report at 11:30 am and ECB rate decision later at night.

Trading quote of the day: “The ability to foresee that some things cannot be foreseen is a very important quality”. – Rousseau

Currency Updates:

EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails

Pivot: 1.084

Our preference: long positions above 1.084 with targets @ 1.09 & 1.0945 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.084 look for further downside with 1.08 & 1.077 as targets.

Comment: the RSI broke above a declining trend line.

Supports and resistances:
1.0975 ***
1.0945 ***
1.09 ***
1.0882 Last
1.084 ***
1.08 ***
1.077 ***

USD/JPY Intraday: caution

Pivot: 117.6

Our preference: long positions above 117.6 with targets @ 118.45 & 118.8 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 117.6 look for further downside with 117.2 & 116.7 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed.

Supports and resistances:
119.15 ***
118.8 ***
118.45 ***
117.804 Last
117.6 ***
117.2 ***
116.7 ***

GBP/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.4475

Pivot: 1.4475

Our preference: short positions below 1.4475 with targets @ 1.435 & 1.43 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.4475 look for further upside with 1.4515 & 1.456 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

Supports and resistances:
1.456 ***
1.4515 ***
1.4475 ***
1.4421 Last
1.435 **
1.43 *
1.4225 *

AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure

Pivot: 0.705

Our preference: short positions below 0.705 with targets @ 0.6935 & 0.69 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 0.705 look for further upside with 0.7085 & 0.7105 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Supports and resistances:
0.7105 ***
0.7085 ***
0.705 ***
0.6959 Last
0.6935 **
0.69 ***
0.6835 ***

SPI 200‏ (ASX)‏ (H6) Intraday: key resistance at 4947

Pivot: 4947

Our preference: short positions below 4947 with targets @ 4823 & 4750 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 4947 look for further upside with 5040 & 5100 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Supports and resistances:
5100
5040
4947
4849 Last
4823
4750
4700

 

 

 

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