Daily Outlook

January 25, 2016

Global Equity markets continued their recovery on Friday, supported in-part by surging oil prices. Markets responded positively to the ECB’s post-meeting comments signaling for potential policy easing in March. Euro and US markets continued their recovery with the FTSE and DAX closing up around 2%. US markets followed trend amid better than expected Manufacturing PMI data, with the S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ gaining 2%, 1.33% and 2.66% respectively. The Nikkei boasted the strongest rebound with a 5.88% gain, however eyes will remain on the outcome of BoJ’s meeting later this week for further policy direction.

Commodity prices rallied as market sentiment reversed. Oil prices recorded a 10% gain, hitting $32.30/bbl, up from last week’s low of $27.50/bbl.  This recent rally in oil has provided equity markets with much needed stability, however concern lingers as downside risks remain. Iron ore also experienced modest gains, rising to $42.20 (up 2.2%) off the back of the Brazilian closure of Vale’s main port. Despite recent gains, downside risk over the medium term is expected as China’s iron ore port inventories totaled at 95.35mt as of Friday.

As it stands, the AUD and NZD are more focused on current global sentiment than domestic events. Despite the strong influences from global risk sentiment and commodity prices, traders will keep an eye on domestic CPI figures and the RBNZ future outlook mid-week.

Trading quote of the day:  It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. George Soros

Currency Updates:

EUR/USD ST: key resistance at 1.11.

Pivot: 1.11

Our preference: short positions below 1.11 with targets @ 1.045 & 1.019 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.11 look for further upside with 1.1495 & 1.172 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum. The pair stands below its strong resistance @ 1.11.

Supports and resistances:
1.172 ***
1.1495 ***
1.11 ***
1.0796 Last
1.045 ***
1.019 ***
0.985 **

 

USD/JPY ST: key resistance at 121.5.

Pivot: 121.5

Our preference: short positions below 121.5 with targets @ 116 & 113.85 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 121.5 look for further upside with 123.8 & 126 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Supports and resistances:
126 **
123.8 ***
121.5 ***
118.57 Last
116 ***
113.85 ***
110 **

GBP/USD ST: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 1.495

Our preference: short positions below 1.495 with targets @ 1.395 & 1.363 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.495 look for further upside with 1.524 & 1.566 as targets.

Comment: the RSI has broken down its 30 level.

Supports and resistances:
1.566 ***
1.524 ***
1.495 ***
1.4255 Last
1.395 ***
1.363 **
1.318 **

AUD/USD ST: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 0.739

Our preference: short positions below 0.739 with targets @ 0.665 & 0.635 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 0.739 look for further upside with 0.753 & 0.7805 as targets.

Comment: as long as 0.739 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Supports and resistances:
0.7805 ***
0.753 ***
0.739 ***
0.7 Last
0.665 ***
0.635 **
0.6125 ***

 

SPI 200‏ (ASX)‏ (H6) Intraday: bullish bias above 4875.

Pivot: 4875

Our preference: long positions above 4875 with targets @ 4950 & 4990 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 4875 look for further downside with 4825 & 4795 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Supports and resistances:
5040
4990
4950
4929 Last
4875
4825
4795

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