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Daily Outlook

February 4, 2016
Stronger than expected US employment data created a risk on appetite in stock markets which caused the USD to fall vs most pairs. EURUSD tested the key 1.0976 level after breaking strong resistance at 1.0940 while GBPUSD hit 1.4540 for first time since January 12th (+0.95% on the day). Traders could be positioning themselves and are lightening up short positions ahead of tomorrow’s BoE Super Thursday. Commodity currencies recovered too with AUD increasing 1% to 0.71 handle and USDCAD has dropped -1.55% after what looks like a stabilization of the OIL price (30.75).

ADP reported US private sector added 205K new jobs in January, beating expectations of 195K. The ADP report gains relevance ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report to be published on Friday. Despite the somewhat upbeat reading, the USD weakened across the board following the release amid dovish comments from FOMC member Dudley. Dudley gave the message that the FED is watching what is happening in the markets and will not hike again until they are fairly sure that there is nothing happening globally that will hurt the US.

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Currency Updates:

EUR/USD Intraday: further advance.
Pivot: 1.1

Our preference: long positions above 1.1 with targets @ 1.115 & 1.12 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1 look for further downside with 1.094 & 1.09 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Supports and resistances:
1.13 **
1.12 **
1.115 **
1.11 Last
1.1 **
1.094 *
1.09 **
Ticker : EUR
USD/JPY Intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot: 119

Our preference: short positions below 119 with targets @ 116.7 & 116.2 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 119 look for further upside with 120 & 120.4 as targets.

Comment: as long as 119 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Supports and resistances:
120.4 *
120 *
119 ***
117.554 Last
116.7 *
116.2 **
116 **
Ticker : JPY
 GBP/USD Intraday: caution.

Pivot: 1.452

Our preference: long positions above 1.452 with targets @ 1.464 & 1.4685 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.452 look for further downside with 1.444 & 1.438 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed and calls for caution.

Supports and resistances:
1.4715 **
1.4685 **
1.464 **
1.4606 Last
1.452 ***
1.444 **
1.438 **
Ticker : GBP
AUD/USD Intraday: limited upside.
Pivot: 0.7115

Our preference: long positions above 0.7115 with targets @ 0.721 & 0.7225 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7115 look for further downside with 0.707 & 0.7 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed.

Supports and resistances:
0.7235 **
0.7225 **
0.721 *
0.7176 Last
0.7115 **
0.707 **
0.7 *
Ticker : AUD
 Gold spot Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 1125

Our preference: long positions above 1125 with targets @ 1143 & 1148 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1125 look for further downside with 1119 & 1111 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Supports and resistances:
1151
1148
1143
1137.84 Last
1125
1119
1111
Ticker : GOLDS

Important note: These technical and research reports are provided to easyMarkets® as a subscriber of third party providers. They are provided for informative purposes only and in no way can they be considered as a recommendation by easyMarkets® to you to engage in any trade. Hence, easyMarkets® shall not be held responsible for any outcome of trading decisions, in regards with these reports or similar reports. You hereby acknowledge that using the information entailed in these reports is at your sole responsibility and you will have no claims with regards to these reports against easyMarkets®. If you do not agree to this, you are strongly advised not to use these reports.

easyMarkets Pty Ltd (AFSL 246566 ABN 73107184510) makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites and the information contained does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. EasyMarkets recommends that you read the Regulation Page, The Product Disclosure Statement, the Terms and Conditions and the Financial Services Guide before making any decision concerning EasyMarkets’ products.

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