Daily Outlook

March 1, 2016

This week we have catalysts that could potentially provide ample trading opportunities, especially in AUD, CNH & USD.

In terms of economic calendar, I would like to highlights the following releases:(Times are in Sydney AEST; Perth, Singapore are 3 hours behind; please see full calendar at easy forex website):

Tuesday 1st March

  • 11:30 AUD Building Approvals
  • 12:00 CNH Manufacturing PMI
  • 14:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision Market pricing a 6% chance of RBA cutting rates, focus will be on the statement.

Wednesday 2nd March

  • 02:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • 11:30 AUD GDP

Thursday 3rd March

  • 00:15 USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 11:30 AUD Trade Balance

Friday 4th March

  • 02:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • 11:30 AUD Retail Sales

Saturday 5th March

  • 00:30 USD Avg Hourly Earnings & Non-Farm Employment Change

Options Strategy Examples
Please note this is not a recommendation to trade. If you would like further information on one or more of the below ideas please call the dealing room on 1800 176 935 prior to placing a trade.

Buy Call and Put for a Straddle Position on AUD/USD; AUD has a number of significant data set to be released as above, offering the potential of increased volatility.
AUDUSD S

Buy Call and Put Option for a Straddle Position on USD/CNH; concern over China’s growth rates dominated headlines at the beginning of this year. Eyes will remain on China’s Manufacturing PMI this week as worse than expected data could see significant price movements.

USDCNH S

Buy Call Option for Long Gold Exposure; Gold continues to show signs of a major structural shift, with its impressive recovery from its low of 1046 in late 2015. The precious metal shows strong demand on dips with investors looking for alternative investment in a negative rate environment and hedging against uncertainty.

XAUUSD C
Please note that this does not represent a trade recommendation and no individual needs or circumstances have been considered.

Currency Updates:

EUR/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 1.0940

Our preference: short positions below 1.0940 with targets @ 1.0810 & 1.0785 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.0940 look for further upside with 1.0965 & 1.1000 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.

Supports and resistances:
1.1000 **
1.0965 ***
1.0940 ***
1.0880 Last
1.0810 **
1.0785 **
1.0772 ***

USD/JPY Intraday: turning down.

Pivot: 113.20

Our preference: short positions below 113.20 with targets @ 111.95 & 111.30 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 113.20 look for further upside with 114.00 & 114.50 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is badly directed.

Supports and resistances:
114.50
114.00
113.20
112.36 Last
111.95
111.30
111.00

GBP/USD Intraday: rebound.

Pivot: 1.3842

Our preference: long positions above 1.3842 with targets @ 1.3950 & 1.3990 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3842 look for further downside with 1.3765 & 1.3700 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Supports and resistances:
1.4044 ***
1.3990 **
1.3950 ***
1.3924 Last
1.3842 ***
1.3765 **
1.3700 **

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 0.7160

Our preference: short positions below 0.7160 with targets @ 0.7095 & 0.7065 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 0.7160 look for further upside with 0.7195 & 0.7220 as targets.

Comment: as long as 0.7160 is resistance, expect a return to 0.7095.

Supports and resistances:
0.7220
0.7195
0.7160
0.7125 Last
0.7095
0.7065
0.7030

SPI 200‏ (ASX)‏ (H6) Intraday: bullish bias above 4845.

Pivot: 4845

Our preference: long positions above 4845 with targets @ 4925 & 4970 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 4845 look for further downside with 4800 & 4775 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Supports and resistances:
5010
4970
4925
4892 Last
4845
4800
4775

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