Overnight the Australian Dollar broke above the 2016 high, surging to almost 0.73 after better than expected GDP data and continued upbeat sentiment in stocks and commodities. It was the best performing currency across markets. The market expectation for RBA’s April cut has decreased from 27% to 14%. Traders will be focused on domestic Trade Balance data today (forecast -3.22bn) and Retail Sales tomorrow (fct +0.4% m/m) for positive trend in the Australian economy. The all-important US employment data (non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, unemployment rate) will be also released on Friday; employment data is a key indicator for the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
WTI Crude Oil continued its upward recovery despite significant 10mln DoE inventory. However, EIA weekly oil storage report showed that production is slowing, declining 2.65% year over year. While 247k barrels per day production decline are not going to balance the oversupply, Oil bulls are seeing it as a start.
Gold faces major resistance at the $1250 level. The precious metal has been experiencing large price fluctuations due to its inverse relationship with stock market sentiment. Gold is currently trading around $1241.
Currency Updates:
EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 1.0895
Our preference: short positions below 1.0895 with targets @ 1.0820 & 1.0785 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.0895 look for further upside with 1.0915 & 1.0940 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is badly directed.
Supports and resistances:
1.0940 ***
1.0915 **
1.0895 ***
1.0865 Last
1.0820 ***
1.0785 ***
1.0750 **
USD/JPY Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 114.06
Our preference: short positions below 114.06 with targets @ 112.87 & 112.50 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 114.06 look for further upside with 114.56 & 114.85 as targets.
Comment: the RSI calls for a drop.
Supports and resistances:
114.85
114.56
114.06
113.36 Last
112.87
112.50
112.13
GBP/USD Intraday: the upside prevails
Pivot: 1.4020
Our preference: long positions above 1.4020 with targets @ 1.4130 & 1.4160 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.4020 look for further downside with 1.3980 & 1.3911 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Supports and resistances:
1.4250 **
1.4160 **
1.4130 ***
1.4077 Last
1.4020 ***
1.3980 ***
1.3911 **
AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 0.7209
Our preference: long positions above 0.7209 with targets @ 0.7330 & 0.7370 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 0.7209 look for further downside with 0.7160 & 0.7105 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is well directed.
Supports and resistances:
0.7385
0.7370
0.7330
0.7294 Last
0.7209
0.7160
0.7105
SPI 200 (ASX) (H6) Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 4950
Our preference: long positions above 4950 with targets @ 5045 & 5085 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 4950 look for further downside with 4905 & 4845 as targets.
Comment: the RSI has just landed on its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up.
Supports and resistances:
5150
5085
5045
5028 Last
4950
4905
4845
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