Strong data out of Australia this week saw the AUDUSD rally to a 3-month high of 0.7373. The AUD posted gains against all major currency pairs as Q4 GDP and trade balance data out performed expectations. Retail sales data to be released today could drive the AUD higher before US NFP and Trade Balance data is released later tonight. A strong NFP result could see AUD gains retrace and have a halting effect on Golds strong upward momentum.
Gold pushed higher overnight, hitting $1268 before settling around the $1260 level at time of writing. The precious metal has been testing key resistance levels as of late, with the break confirming a minor trend reversal. Traders will be keeping a close eye on Golds performance during the NFP release. If a strong NFP result fails to shake Gold’s momentum, expect further testing of $1263 and above.
Markets are increasingly focused on bullish OIL headlines as WTI tested $35/bbl levels previously unseen since early January this year. Oils rally since its February lows have been driven by commentary from both OPEC and Non-OPEC oil ministers regarding production freeze negotiations. Macquarie Capital’s Vikas Dwiyedi believes that bearish news continues to be increasingly discounted despite rapidly rising inventory levels. In his opinion, the market fundamentals “suggest the rally is too early” and that we should “expect crude to retrace to the $30 per barrel range”. Despite talks of a major oil producer meeting in March, no date or location has been set.
Currency Updates:
EUR/USD Intraday: continuation of the rebound.
Pivot: 1.0890
Our preference: long positions above 1.0890 with targets @ 1.1000 & 1.1030 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.0890 look for further downside with 1.0850 & 1.0825 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Supports and resistances:
1.1070 ***
1.1030 ***
1.1000 ***
1.0947 Last
1.0890 ***
1.0850 ***
1.0825 ***
USD/JPY Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 113.20
Our preference: long positions above 113.20 with targets @ 114.25 & 114.55 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 113.20 look for further downside with 112.85 & 112.50 as targets.
Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Supports and resistances:
114.85
114.55
114.25
113.93 Last
113.20
112.85
112.50
GBP/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 1.4020
Our preference: long positions above 1.4020 with targets @ 1.4215 & 1.4255 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.4020 look for further downside with 1.3980 & 1.3910 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Supports and resistances:
1.4305 ***
1.4255 **
1.4215 ***
1.4076 Last
1.4020 ***
1.3980 **
1.3910 ***
AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 0.7295
Our preference: long positions above 0.7295 with targets @ 0.7385 & 0.7420 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 0.7295 look for further downside with 0.7250 & 0.7200 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.
Supports and resistances:
0.7460
0.7420
0.7385
0.7301 Last
0.7295
0.7250
0.7200
SPI 200 (ASX) (H6) Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 5000
Our preference: long positions above 5000 with targets @ 5085 & 5115 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 5000 look for further downside with 4905 & 4845 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Supports and resistances:
5150
5115
5085
5075 Last
5000
4905
4845
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