Trading volumes are light today as the Easter holiday period comes to a close. The Australian dollar continues to consolidate around the 0.750 level having retraced from its monthly high of 0.7680. Despite recent Fed dovishness, analysts still expect two rate hikes in the second half of the year. They believe the US economy is showing signs of recovery and momentum and expect GDP to rebound above the 2% level. Risks still remain to the downside however, making the timing of future rate hikes difficult to predict.
This week we have a number of data to be released, with a particular focus on the US. Below are some of the key data events to look out for:
(Please Note: All times are GMT +10:00 Eastern Australia DST)
Wednesday March 30th
- (02:30) US Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
- (23:15) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Thursday March 31st
- (01:30) US Crude Oil Inventories
- (19:30) GBP Current Account
- (23:30) CAD GDP
Friday April 1st
- (12:00) CNY Manufacturing PMI
- (12:45) US Non-Farm Payrolls
- (23:30) Non-Farm Payrolls & US Unemployment Rate
Currency Updates:
EUR/USD Intraday: caution
Pivot: 1.1185
Our preference: short positions below 1.1185 with targets @ 1.1150 & 1.1120 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.1185 look for further upside with 1.1210 & 1.1235 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
Supports and resistances:
1.1235 **
1.1210 **
1.1185 ***
1.1184 Last
1.1150 *
1.1120 **
1.1090 **
USD/JPY Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 112.35
Our preference: long positions above 112.35 with targets @ 113.30 & 113.80 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 112.35 look for further downside with 111.75 & 111.35 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
Supports and resistances:
114.10
113.80
113.30
112.71 Last
112.35
111.75
111.35
GBP/USD Intraday: rebound.
Pivot: 1.4050
Our preference: long positions above 1.4050 with targets @ 1.4200 & 1.4240 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.4050 look for further downside with 1.3985 & 1.3910 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Supports and resistances:
1.4310 *
1.4240 **
1.4200 *
1.4181 Last
1.4050 **
1.3985 **
1.3910 ***
AUD/USD Intraday: key resistance at 0.7540
Pivot: 0.7540
Our preference: short positions below 0.7540 with targets @ 0.7475 & 0.7445 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 0.7540 look for further upside with 0.7570 & 0.7610 as targets.
Comment: as long as the resistance at 0.7540 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.7475 remains high.
Supports and resistances:
0.7610
0.7570
0.7540
0.7534 Last
0.7475
0.7445
0.7410
Crude Oil (WTI) (K6) Intraday: rebound.
Pivot: 39.00
Our preference: long positions above 39.00 with targets @ 39.88 & 40.38 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 39.00 look for further downside with 38.35 & 38.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
Supports and resistances:
40.85
40.38
39.88
39.67 Last
39.00
38.35
38.00
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