Daily Outlook

April 11, 2016

The Australian Dollar grinded higher to 0.7560 off the back of soaring Oil prices. Oil has rallied more than 6%, driven by lower US output and hope OPEC meeting on 17 April can reach freeze output agreement. The sentiment on OPEC agreement does change day to day and likely to influence risk barometer this week; given past rhetoric reaching a clear agreement on freeze output will be a feat. The market will look for direction from China’s CPI and PPI data to be released today, forecasted at 2.4% and -4.6% year to year. China’s March data can swing risk sentiment with volatility in AUDJPY likely to continue. AUDJPY fell more than 5% last week as the market favoured safe haven order flows, untangling the carry trade prevalent in the AUDJPY pair. Talks of intervention from Japanese officials are increasing with JPY strength seen as undesirable, adding to market uncertainty.

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Trade Crude Oil‏ Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 37.95

Our preference: long positions above 37.95 with targets @ 40.40 & 40.85 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 37.95 look for further downside with 37.44 & 36.70 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Supports and resistances:
41.25
40.85
40.40
39.59 Last
37.95
37.44
36.70

Ticker : OIL
Trade AUD/JPY Intraday: key resistance at 82.84.

Pivot: 82.84

Our preference: short positions below 82.84 with targets @ 81.11 & 80.64 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 82.84 look for further upside with 83.88 & 84.60 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.

Supports and resistances:
84.60
83.88
82.84
81.82 Last
81.11
80.64
79.86

Ticker : AUDJPY
Trade SPI 200‏ (ASX)‏ Intraday: capped by a negative trend line.

Pivot: 4955

Our preference: short positions below 4955 with targets @ 4874 & 4830 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 4955 look for further upside with 5030 & 5083 as targets.

Comment: as long as 4955 is resistance, likely decline to 4874.

Supports and resistances:
5083
5030
4955
4931 Last
4874
4830
4800

Unknown ISIN : Ticker : AP

Currency Updates:

Trade EUR/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 1.1360

Our preference: long positions above 1.1360 with targets @ 1.1430 & 1.1455 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.1360 look for further downside with 1.1335 & 1.1310 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Supports and resistances:
1.1480 ***
1.1455 **
1.1430 ***
1.1404 Last
1.1360 ***
1.1335 ***
1.1310 ***

Ticker : EUR
Trade USD/JPY Intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 109.30

Our preference: short positions below 109.30 with targets @ 107.70 & 107.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 109.30 look for further upside with 109.95 & 110.50 as targets.

Comment: a break below 107.70 would trigger a drop towards 107.00.

Supports and resistances:
110.50
109.95
109.30
108.25 Last
107.70
107.00
106.15

Ticker : JPY
Trade GBP/USD Intraday: further advance.

Pivot: 1.4050

Our preference: long positions above 1.4050 with targets @ 1.4170 & 1.4245 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.4050 look for further downside with 1.4005 & 1.3945 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Supports and resistances:
1.4320 ***
1.4245 ***
1.4170 ***
1.4125 Last
1.4050 ***
1.4005 **
1.3945 ***

Ticker : GBP
Trade AUD/USD Intraday: further upside.

Pivot: 0.7520

Our preference: long positions above 0.7520 with targets @ 0.7590 & 0.7615 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7520 look for further downside with 0.7490 & 0.7455 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.

Supports and resistances:
0.7635
0.7615
0.7590
0.7564 Last
0.7520
0.7490
0.7455

Ticker : AUD
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