Daily Outlook

April 12, 2016
  • Currencies: the hottest topic is the relentless strength of the JPY with not much stopping the course of it with the BoJ meeting only coming up at the end of April. When Japan intervened in the FX markets in 2011, USD/JPY was trading below 80 and the coordinated intervention on 18 March that year came one week after the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

 

  • Stocks: Shares in Asia mixed on Monday. At the time of writing Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index has dropped -1.38% on JPY’s strength. Equities in China gained as PPI deflation moderated. China’s CSI 300 index has added +1.74% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has climbed +1.5%.

 

  • Oil and GOLD: Oil comes to the front of both Forex and Commodities traders watch lists this week as the world’s major producers both within and outside OPEC come together in Doha, Qatar. The talks are a follow up talk on the current production freeze and encompass a wider range of non-OPEC nations. The discussion will be around how long the production freeze will last as well as whether the $50 per barrel price target for Oil can be reached. OIL rose in Asia to as high as $40.40 while GOLD also climbed to $1257 after closing $1244 on Friday.

 

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Trade Crude Oil‏ (WTI)‏ Intraday: further advance.

Pivot: 39.00

Our preference: long positions above 39.00 with targets @ 41.25 & 41.75 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 39.00 look for further downside with 38.25 & 37.44 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Supports and resistances:
42.50
41.75
41.25
40.48 Last
39.00
38.25
37.44

Ticker : CL1
Trade SPI 200‏ (ASX)‏ Intraday: consolidation.

Pivot: 4955

Our preference: short positions below 4955 with targets @ 4874 & 4830 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 4955 look for further upside with 5030 & 5083 as targets.

Comment: as long as 4955 is resistance, likely decline to 4874.

Supports and resistances:
5083
5030
4955
4924 Last
4874
4830

4800

Unknown ISIN : Ticker : AP
Trade AUD/JPY Intraday: key resistance at 82.84.

Pivot: 82.84

Our preference: short positions below 82.84 with targets @ 81.11 & 80.64 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 82.84 look for further upside with 83.88 & 84.60 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.

Supports and resistances:
84.60
83.88
82.84
82.12 Last
81.11
80.64
79.86

Ticker : AUDJPY

Currency Updates:

Trade USD/JPY Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 108.50

Our preference: short positions below 108.50 with targets @ 107.60 & 107.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 108.50 look for further upside with 109.15 & 109.95 as targets.

Comment: as long as 108.50 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Supports and resistances:
109.95
109.15
108.50
107.98 Last
107.60
107.00
106.15

Ticker : JPY
Trade AUD/USD Intraday: expect 0.7685.

Pivot: 0.7520

Our preference: long positions above 0.7520 with targets @ 0.7635 & 0.7685 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7520 look for further downside with 0.7490 & 0.7455 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Supports and resistances:
0.7725
0.7685
0.7635
0.7595 Last
0.7520
0.7490
0.7455

Ticker : AUD
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