Daily Outlook

April 19, 2016

Monday started with risk off sentiment after Doha meeting failed to reach any agreement with OIL, commodities currencies and equities all gapped down. The reversal was swift with European and US market seeing the pullback as opportunities to buy. S&P500 made new 2016 high, finished up 0.65% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting 18,000 for the first time since July 2015.

 

The sharp recovery highlights the bullish trend over the past month in risk sentiment, with flows favouring higher yield currencies and stocks. This is supported by improvement in China’s March economic data, the Fed’s cautious preference which means hold for longer, and prospect of further easing from Japan given JPY appreciation. In the near term, the consolidation of bullish trend for risk assets is likely. Factors that could deter this view includes poor US companies earning and change in central banks’ dovish stance.

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Trade AUD/USD Intraday: towards 0.7770.
Pivot: 0.7675

Our preference: long positions above 0.7675 with targets @ 0.7770 & 0.7815 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7675 look for further downside with 0.7630 & 0.7580 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Supports and resistances:
0.7860
0.7815
0.7770
0.7750 Last
0.7675
0.7630
0.7580

Ticker : AUD
Trade Crude Oil‏ (WTI)‏ (K6) Intraday: rebound.

Pivot: 38.44

Our preference: long positions above 38.44 with targets @ 40.80 & 41.73 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 38.44 look for further downside with 37.60 & 36.80 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is well directed.

Supports and resistances:
42.42
41.73
40.80
40.00 Last
38.44
37.60
36.80

Ticker : CL1
Trade S&P 500‏ (CME)‏ (M6) Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 2065.00

Our preference: long positions above 2065.00 with targets @ 2090.00 & 2095.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 2065.00 look for further downside with 2058.00 & 2054.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Supports and resistances:
2100.00 **
2095.00 ***
2090.00 **
2084.00 Last
2065.00 **
2058.00 **
2054.00 **

Unknown ISIN : Ticker : ES

 

Trade Sugar‏ (ICE)‏ (N6) Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot: 15.16

Our preference: long positions above 15.16 with targets @ 15.85 & 16.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 15.16 look for further downside with 14.75 & 14.40 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is well directed.

Supports and resistances:
16.25
16.00
15.85
15.54 Last
15.16
14.75
14.40

Ticker : SB1
Trade Copper‏ (CME)‏ (K6) Intraday: rebound.

Pivot: 2.1350

Our preference: long positions above 2.1350 with targets @ 2.1800 & 2.2000 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 2.1350 look for further downside with 2.1190 & 2.1040 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a rebound.

Supports and resistances:
2.2200
2.2000
2.1800
2.1690 Last
2.1350
2.1190
2.1040

Ticker : HG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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