Monday started with risk off sentiment after Doha meeting failed to reach any agreement with OIL, commodities currencies and equities all gapped down. The reversal was swift with European and US market seeing the pullback as opportunities to buy. S&P500 made new 2016 high, finished up 0.65% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting 18,000 for the first time since July 2015.
The sharp recovery highlights the bullish trend over the past month in risk sentiment, with flows favouring higher yield currencies and stocks. This is supported by improvement in China’s March economic data, the Fed’s cautious preference which means hold for longer, and prospect of further easing from Japan given JPY appreciation. In the near term, the consolidation of bullish trend for risk assets is likely. Factors that could deter this view includes poor US companies earning and change in central banks’ dovish stance.
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