Daily Outlook

May 11, 2016

Soybean futures jumped more than 6% to a nearly two-year high on Tuesday after the U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowers its 2016/17 soybean production forecast. The USDA lowered production expectations by 129 million to 3,800 million bushels, due to poor harvest and trend yields on 2015 crops. The latest USDA data dropped  U.S. 2015/16 soybean ending stocks to 400 million bushels versus average trade expectations of 426 million. USDA also limited its projected production gains for the 2016/17 South American harvest due to excessive flooding in areas of Argentina. On May 6th the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange claimed a record 1.6 million hectares of soybean planting were lost due to excessive rains. As uncertainty builds around the global supply of soybeans, China’s demand continues to strengthen. With China consumption of total world soybean supply projected at 63.9% and growing, overall soybean demand for U.S supplies is expected to remain strong. With falling supply and growing demand, recent events are providing strong fundamentals for a bull market.

 

Oil rebounded sharply from its previous day’s losses, triggered by extending concerns over instability of Saudi Arabia’s oil policy after the change of Energy Minister. The price reversal is partially supported by the $43/barrel price level from previous price movement. A change of Saudi Arabia Oil Minister combined with oil production outages in some regions have attributed to the price recovery. Despite concerns over Canada wildfires and their impact on oil production subsiding, a new disruption in Nigeria amid a series of attacks on its oil infrastructure has pushed oil output close to a 22-year low in Africa’s largest oil producer, imposing bullish pressure to prices. The rally on oil was capped and sent back to $44.5/barrel by API data showing a build of 3.4 mln barrels and the potential increase of oil production in Saudi Arabia. We are expecting to see oil price to range bound between $42-$47 interval recently before the market can see a clear oil policy from Saudi Arabia.

Currency Updates:

Soybeans‏ (CME)‏ (N6) Intraday: up turn

Pivot: 1047.00

Our preference: long positions above 1047.00 with targets @ 1100.00 & 1118.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1047.00 look for further downside with 1027.75 & 1011.00 as targets.

Comment: the immediate trend remains up and the momentum is strong.

Supports and resistances:
1130.00 **
1118.00 **
1100.00 ***
1080.25 Last
1047.00 ***
1027.75 **
1011.00 **

 

Crude Oil‏ (WTI)‏ (M6) Intraday: bullish bias above 43.00

Pivot: 43.00

Our preference: long positions above 43.00 with targets @ 45.10 & 45.78 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 43.00 look for further downside with 42.50 & 41.95 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Supports and resistances:
46.08
45.78
45.10
44.56 Last
43.00
42.50
41.95

AUD/USD Intraday: turning up

Pivot: 0.7325

Our preference: long positions above 0.7325 with targets @ 0.7415 & 0.7450 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7325 look for further downside with 0.7295 & 0.7260 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is supported by a rising trend line.

Supports and resistances:
0.7480
0.7450
0.7415
0.7384 Last
0.7325
0.7295
0.7260

 

Important note: These technical and research reports are provided to easy-forex® as a subscriber of third party providers. They are provided for informative purposes only and in no way can they be considered as a recommendation by easy-forex® to you to engage in any trade. Hence, easy-forex® shall not be held responsible for any outcome of trading decisions, in regards with these reports or similar reports. You hereby acknowledge that using the information entailed in these reports is at your sole responsibility and you will have no claims with regards to these reports against easy-forex®. If you do not agree to this, you are strongly advised not to use these reports.

Easy Forex Pty Ltd (AFSL 246566 ABN 73107184510) makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites and the information contained does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. Easy-Forex recommends that you read the Regulation Page, The Product Disclosure Statement, the Terms and Conditions and the Financial Services Guide before making any decision concerning Easy-Forex’s products.

 

Back to daily Archive

join THOUSANDS OF other people
who trade with easymarkets

Two minutes is all it takes.

You're almost there!

Finish your application and start trading today.

DON'T MISS A TRADING OPPORTUNITY

Two minutes is all it takes.