Daily Outlook

June 14, 2016

Risk off trade on the back of growing Brexit risks saw global stock markets fall overnight. US S&P fell -0.8% at 2079  and Eurostoxx 50 ended down -1.98% at 2853.

Australian markets were closed for Queens birthday but futures indicate a fall of over 2% at the open.

AUD/USD was relatively stable in a 0.7350-0.7400 range with most of the action on the British Pound.

Gold’s surge continued on the Brexit concerns rising above $1280 overnight to $1287 highs before settling at $1283. $1300oz is the key resistance from April.

Wild swings in the GBP/USD were seen after fresh multimonth lows of 1.4115 and GBP/JPY broke 3 year lows under Y150. Rumors that new poll showed the race tightening saw the GBP/USD pop to 1.43. The actual ICM Brexit poll showed a 6 point lead for the leave team and this saw Pound sellers reenter the market and we have stabilized above the 1.4200 figure.

OIL/USD fell back through $50 a barrel on Friday and further selling Monday to $48.50 lows has led to concerns the recent rally has run out of steam.

 

Currency Updates:

EUR/USD Intraday: caution

Pivot: 1.1305

Our preference: short positions below 1.1305 with targets @ 1.1220 & 1.1180 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.1305 look for further upside with 1.1350 & 1.1390 as targets.

Comment: intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.

Supports and resistances:
1.1390 ***
1.1350 ***
1.1305 ***
1.1293 Last
1.1220 ***
1.1180 ***
1.1135 **

 

Gold spot Intraday: further upside.

Pivot: 1271.50

Our preference: long positions above 1271.50 with targets @ 1293.00 & 1303.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1271.50 look for further downside with 1257.00 & 1246.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Supports and resistances:
1315.00 **
1303.00
1293.00
1285.00 Last
1271.50
1257.00
1246.00

 

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