Daily Outlook

June 20, 2016

Risk sentiment trades lifted on Monday morning as Bremain gains momentum over the weekend. The British Pound against Japanese Yen GBPJPY, the barometer for Brexit risk, is up 1.3%, with other risk proxies the Australian Dollar up 0.55% to 0.7435 and equities futures all gapped higher.

 

UK referendum will drive order flows this week as expectation of volatility is very high. Brexit will cast shadow over the European Union effectiveness and could provide the catalyst for other EU countries to leave. This will could bring uncertainty in the already fragile Eurozone and global economic environment. Coordinated easing efforts by central banks is likely in Brexit event. Bremain will provide a relief rally in risk assets and unwind the safe havens flows in JPY and Gold.

 

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Trade GBP/USD Intraday: bounce.

Pivot: 1.4350

Our preference: long positions above 1.4350 with targets @ 1.4520 & 1.4560 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.4350 look for further downside with 1.4300 & 1.4220 as targets.

Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.

Supports and resistances:
1.4600 ***
1.4560 ***
1.4520 ***
1.4481 Last
1.4350 ***
1.4300 **
1.4220 ***

 

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