Daily Outlook

July 18, 2016

The new week begins with Japan on Holiday. Markets are generally staying in Friday’s range with new factors influencing it, such as the attempted coup in Turkey last Friday. ECB meeting is the main focus of the week as President Mario Draghi would address questions regarding the impact of Brexit. Today Martin Weale, who is a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, will speak on the implications of Brexit for monetary policy. The speech, which will be followed by a Q&A, could attract attention after last Thursday’s BoE decision to keep the Bank Rate steady at 0.50%. 

Currencies: After the attempted coup on Friday, the Turkish Lira is gaining back some ground after falling more than 5% on news it. The recovery, comes as the Central Bank is trying to reassure investors that it will offer unlimited liquidity to banks should there be a need. Late Friday, the USD gained ground versus all majors besides the JPY, as stocks markets dropped and investor seemed the relative safety of the USD but that was quickly unwinding. Other market movers overnight are the NZD which slid 0.7 % to $0.7073, coming under pressure after New Zealand’s consumer price index rose less than expected in the second quarter.

Stocks: The Dow Jones Industrial Average edges up Friday to its fourth straight record high close even as investors’ interest in equities waned after an extended rally that had lifted key indexes to record levels. All three indexes advanced for a third week in a row. Stocks in Asia were mixed on Monday, displaying little reaction to the failed coup in Turkey, while data out of China showed slowing home-price gains. Australia’s S&P ASX 200 up 0.5% and the Hang Seng Index up 0.2%. But the Shanghai Composite Index 0.1% and South Korea’s Kospi, flat.

Oil and Gold: Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Monday, following gains last week, as traders shrugged off the impact of Friday’s attempted coup in Turkey, while a weaker dollar and upbeat economic data from the United States lent price support. U.S. crude futures climbed 10 cents to $46.05 a barrel after ending the previous session up 27 cents, gaining more than 1 %for the week. Gold on the other hand, dropped from 1336 to 1228 as investor confidence was restored and the value of “safe havens” dropped.

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