Daily Outlook

December 19, 2016

There was a pause in the 14 year high rally of the greenback on Friday as the market saw profit taking from long dollar traders.

The U.S. dollar has surged this week after the Federal Reserve signaled it could raise interest-rates three times next year instead of twice as previously expected.

The Euro hit a 13 year low, dipping below 1.04, while Japan’s yen fell to 118.18 against the dollar, its seventh decline in 10 days. That represents about an 11% retreat since Donald Trump was elected president on Nov. 8.

Oil prices rose on Friday amid signs that major oil producers will stick to their agreement to cut production next year combined with a slow down of the U.S. dollar’s rally.

WTI futures gained 1.96% or $1 to settle at $51.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, gained 2,2% or $1.19 to $55.21 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange.

According to media reports on Friday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak also said that all Russian oil companies, including Rosneft, have agreed to cut production in accordance with the agreement Russia struck with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producers.

The agreed cuts by oil producers are expected to be implemented from January.

Meanwhile Gold prices bounced from a 10-month low on Friday, as the decline prompted investors to cover short positions and look for bargains. Rising tension between China and the U.S. also help spur demand.  The Pentagon has demanded that China immediately return a U.S. Navy underwater drone captured in the South China Sea, sparking new friction in a region where China has sought increasing control.

Gold for February delivery settled up 0.7% at $1,137.40 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In equities, the Dow ended the week up 0.4% but fell 8.83 points or less than 0.1% on Friday to 19843.41. Overall the Dow is up 8.2% from election day and an 14% overall for the year.

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