Australia
The unemployment rate for January was down 5.7%, employment headline up 13.5 from an expected 10K, however the internals was another story. Full time employment change was weaker, down -44.8k. This capped an initial pop (reaching 0.77325) by the AUD/USD as traders first reacted to the positive headline figures. Over the course of the Asian session and overnight, the pair traded lower, currently sitting under the 0.7700 handle.
Global Markets
Overnight Global markets moved in sync with a weakening U.S. Dollar Index. US Stocks took a breather ending the session slightly down, USD/JPY dragged lower trading at Feb 13 levels (113.266), while EUR/USD continues its short term rally after bouncing off 1.0521 and currently trading Feb 10 levels. Gold strengthened resuming its uptrend since December – next resistance at 1246.2.
U.S.
After Janet Yellens Congress testimony on Wed/Thurs, and strong economic figures out of the US this week, the chances of a US rate rise in March reached 44% – keep in mind this figure was in the teens on Tuesday. The generally more hawkish commentary from Yellen and Co. is seen as equity-positive.
EU
ECB minutes released overnight, from the 18-19 January meeting, showed the European Central Bank sees ‘insufficient progress’ toward sustained inflation, suggesting it’s in no rush change its supportive monetary policy stance. Members acknowledged recent growth across the EU, however ‘stability and predictability in an uncertain environment’, particularly with weak inflation, supported their approach of remaining patient.
Economic Figures
Positive figures across the board in the US overnight. Building Permits (1.29M) and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (43.3) both outperformed, unemployment 239K – under expectations.
Today’s economic announcements:
- 8:45am NZD Retail Sales q/q came in lower at 0.8%
- 8:30pm GBP Retail Sales m/m EXP 1.0%
