- EUR/USD weak bounce, re-visits Friday trend break but nothing more; USD/JPY still no strength of its own despite turn higher in Nikkei; Swissie firm on European haven trade
- CAD/USD helped by oil and Canadian Housing Starts; AUD/USD lower with metals. The short AUD/CAD trade has seen a 200 pip sell off in the last 6 trading sessions – expect key support at 0.9980 level.
- UK CPI tonight, if weak, could see GBP/USD trade down to, and find support, at 1.2365 and 1.2340. A strong figure is likely to reverse all Friday losses and trade back to the 1.2480 level.
- Oil up for fifth day on Middle East tension, gold levitates back near 200-day MA resistance for similar reason
- Commodity price action remains disparate. Oil prices also remain on an upward trend. Oil prices have rebounded more than 9 percent over the past month. Iron ore is now in a bear market, with its price down 21% from its February high.
- The market was range bound as activity was sandwiched between geopolitical concerns over Syria and Yellen’s postmarket close speech at the University of Michigan.
- Easter Holiday period having an impact on trading flows, combined with Trump agenda slowing down, positive Trade talks with President Xi Jinping, Fed hiking rates, Syria conflict and upcoming US earnings season is having a paralysing effect on the US equity market. DOW (+0.01), S&P500 (0.07%), NASDAQ (0.05%).
- French election starting to hit markets, with pressure on EUR/USD and DAX (-0.20%), CAC (-0.54%), FTSE (-0.01%) overnight. Both Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are on about 24% of the surveyed vote and expected to contest the run-off vote on May 7th.
- Australian jobs numbers on Thursday – a key focus for the RBA as the figures have a key role in reaching the 2-3% inflation band. AUD/USD in play all week.
Today’s Economic calendar (AEST)
- 11:30am NAB Business Confidence
- 6:30pm UK CPI y/y
- 7:00pm German ZEW economic sentiment
- 3:45am FOMC’s Kashkari Speaks
