Daily Outlook

April 13, 2017
  • Sharp drops overnight in USD/JPY and the Dollar Index as President Trump told the Wall St Journal he thought the currency was getting “too strong”. Trump stated he preferred a weaker currency and low rates.
  • USD/JPY hit a low of 108.905 on earlier this morning, not quite testing the 200-day moving average at 108.75. Any breach of this level could see some sharp falls.
  • The moves in the Dollar, combined with geopolitical tensions have seen Gold rally to 1,286.9
  • The Euro had an 80 pip up move off the Dollar weakness – the Dollar index testing the 10,000 level. This also saw the Aussie dollar reverse recent losses, trading up to 0.7535.
  • Shorts in the Aussie also may have unwound in preparation for this morning’s Australian employment figures. Employment Change March: expected +20K, prior -6.4K. Unemployment Rate: expected 5.9%, prior 5.9%
  • USD/CAD traded down to 1.3271 after BoC statement ‘acknowledges the strength of the recent data’.
  • This uncertainty and sharp moves in the market has seen the Volatility Index move higher. Traders expecting greater levels of volatility in the near term, with US equity indices likely to experience some bigger moves over coming sessions.
  • Crude oil prices moved lower towards $53.11 a barrel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a slightly larger-than-expected drawdown of 2.17 million barrels.

Today’s Economic calendar (AEST)

  • 11:30am Australian Employment Figures
  • China Trade Balance – time unknown
  • 10:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales
  • 10:30pm US PPI and Unemployment claims
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