Trader Talk

USDX: 88.45

The US dollar index (DXY) has a bounce that supported by recent resurgence of U.S equity market. We have some key tests wait for the U.S. dollar at 88.45/88.77/89.60. Positioning your trade beforehand is always a preferred strategy for the majority trader. Right now, a March rate hike by Feb is almost already being priced in, coupled with U.S 10-year Tressure rate reaching 2.91% (rate-free rate), we are most likely to see a weakening dollar in the long-term with bond price being multi-month low.

USD JPY: 106.20

Bizarre price section for dollar yen, very few stories to follow but a solid downtrend breakout is what we are seeing right now. We have a new hawkish member in Bank Of Japan named Masazumi Wakatabe from Waseda University, a QE (quantitative easing policy) section in back to the discussion. At the same time, a 1.3 year low for the USDJPY is not normal, however, a new trend and channel means opportunity for one of the most traded instrument around the world.

EUR USD: 1.2505

Searching for possible route to 1.2500, we have overarching decent amount of encouraging data from U.S. However, if we looked at price, the dollar actually edged lower than last NY session. Hence the stubbornness in Euro is not beyond reason, and EU December balance surplus leading indicator for the recement movement. Bullish against USD and 1.2500 to our next level to place position.

GBP USD: 1.4100

Souring Pound acts just as we predicted, we see GBPUSD right above 1.4060 and exhibit a quick bounce in no time. Actually, if you turn to our one-hour chart, we find a very encouraging candle for consecutive 4 hours. It indeed outperformed the market big time yesterday, up by 0.6% to 1.4085 for decent period of time.

AUD USD: 0.7940

AUDUSD hold gains before the Reserve bank of Australia’s Governor Philip Lowe made its extremely expected neutral position. We have 50 pips away from 0.8000 key psychology level, and it had been tested and proved to be an immediate resistance. Notwithstanding, we would also likely to see reversals in AUDUSD, which means previous resistance becoming valid support. And there is all the encouraging news that will persuade the market to establish the new trend, if the intraday higher high of 0.7970 is confirmed, that scenario we depict will have a very strong probability to occur.

NZD USD:

USD CAD: 1.2490

The pair showed a sign of bounce back after a big plunge, following dovish talks by BOC regarding lowering the interest rates might be a reaction from the central bank as subdued growth, despite of the US dollar weakness still persists, and oil price is rallying up back to its top. Breaching below 1.4470 level would confirming the sell-off in the loonie despite of the major trend of weakening US.

VIX: 19.13

Nothing much movement in the fear index, as it continues to hover around 18.00 to 21.00 level. US indexes however presuming its daily gain as the sentiment of the better economy is strong, in spite of the rally’s volatility is higher compared the rally before the big retracement last week.

GOLD: $1,350

Crude oil prices extended their advances at the beginning of the day, to abruptly change course ahead of the US opening. West Texas intermediately crude futures fell on the headlines coming form the OPEC after the UAE’s energy minister saying that oil buffer is needed to temper any wild swing price. The next key resistance level is at $62.20, where breaking this price would presume its bullish momentum.

OIL (WTI): $61.35

Crude oil prices extended their advances at the beginning of the day, to abruptly change course ahead of the US opening. West Texas intermediately crude futures fell on the headlines coming form the OPEC after the UAE’s energy minister saying that oil buffer is needed to temper any wild swing price. The next key resistance level is at $62.20, where breaking this price would presume its bullish momentum.

BITCOIN (BTC): $10,260

Strong momentum from the crypto as it broke above the key level at $10,000 which drove the price up more than 60% from last week’s low. General market jitters within the crypto space, have eased over the last few trading sessions. The upward moving looking strong as bull markets hope that the regulation news are going to favour the bitcoin.

Macro Themes in Play

• USD is still weak, with the indication of a weak dollar is good for the implementation of Trump’s policy.
• Bitcoin sees one of the strongest velocity in month, $11,000 is our next immediate level for the week.