Trader Talk

USDX: 89.92

The Greenback extends its losses, crossed back to below 90.00 level as still following the continuation from the previous Trump’s tariff plan which cause a broad weakness for the dollar, however starts its early trading week with a retracement after bottoming at 89.60. The upcoming relevant news to the dollar side is the upcoming Non-Manufacturing PMI which will be released tomorrow. To remain in below 90.00 level would trim the previous week gains.

USD JPY: 106.02

The pair reached its lowest since Nov 2016 on risk aversion and hovering around the 105.50 level, triggered by Trump last week and hawkish comments on monetary policy by BOJ’s Governor Kuroda regarding the action towards increasing inflation. Major data will be released at the end of this week regarding BOJ monetary policy on Friday. Breaking the multi-year low at 105.235 will strengthen the bulls market.

EUR USD: 1.2345

The EURUSD continues to recovering ground after hitting an over 1-month low on previous week, as speculation of US Fed may hike rates at least 4 times this month which sent the equities lower as well as Trump’s tariff decision. However, in the beginning of this week, the rally slowed down and breaking below 1.2300 will reject the recovery. Upcoming services PMI data from the EU countries later today.

GBP USD: 1.3800

The broad USD weakness unable to give meaningful Pound buy-off sentiment as the so much awaited UK PM May speech failed to ease the fear of Hard Brexit negotiation ahead, as EU may or may not accept the conditions. Pound started the beginning of the week with downward momentum which trimmed almost 40% of the two days’ gains from the US broad weakness. Next upcoming major relevant data for today is the GBP Services PMI.

AUD USD: 0.7755

The Aussie under pressure despite dollar’s broad weakness, amid Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on metal and start the beginning of the week with a strong bearish momentum, potentially in breaking 0.7700 level. Poor performance of worldwide equities also preventing the AUD to take gain. Busy calendar in the middle of the week for AUD side on Cash Rate statement, retail sales, GDP data, RBA Gov Lowe speaks.

NZD USD: 0.7235

The kiwi is struggling to hold its previous gain from the broad US weakness and still continues its bearish path amid the USD regaining its strength in the early trading week. Quiet calendar week for NZD as no much major relevant news, which USD and macro-economic data will be the main drivers. The next support level is at 0.7200.

USD CAD: 1.2890

The Loonie starts its new weekly trading with its persistence bearish momentum, rising to push up another high level this year as mostly driven by Trump’s tariffs’ plans. The rally of the pair is seemingly overstretched however, as it is in the overbought zone according to the investors. Some major data going to be released in the first full week of March regarding BOC statement, and unemployment rate at the end of the week. The next key support level is at 1.2835.

VIX: 19.59

The fear index started to ease after a decline in the U.S. equities due to Trump’s tariffs plan as the stocks markets started to stabilise. The next relevant data will be released later tomorrow early morning, regarding ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI which will indicate the confidence in the U.S. economy.

GOLD: $1,322

The yellow metal unable to hold its position above $1,320 level after it took an advantage on slump equities following the Trump’s plan to slap tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium. The next strong key support level is at $1,316 level, as pushing below that level will change the trend direction.

OIL (WTI): $61.60

Broad dollar weakness pushed the oil higher after bottoming at $60.11, which was nearly break the psychological level of $60.00, able to hold its gain despite of the greenback starting to recover. The oil price is lacking directional momentum right now, however breaching above $62.00 will turn into short term bullish reaction.

BITCOIN (BTC): $11,425

Great start of the week by the crypto, as it managed to extend its gain after successfully broke out a bullish falling wedge pattern and hold its position back to above $11,000 region, possibly testing above the February high at $11,748. Bitcoin faces resistance around $11,250 and $11,350 level.

Macro Themes in Play

• Dollar starts to regain its strength back after the previous week slump against most of the majors.

• Italian elections come into play in the bigger picture, unprecedented emphasis on the eurozone political situation.