FOREX Trading Australia – Foreign Exchange Market Summary
Dollar
- Dollar rallied across the board as failure of other majors to gain on weak
U.S.
Euro
- The Euro slipped below 1.28 and went to its lowest level in two months and is looking vulnerable technically as well as on fundamental factors. The International Monetary Fund downgraded its growth forecast for the Euro-Zone while upgrading for the
U.S.
Yen
- The Yen went back into the 108 region on general Dollar momentum with the market looking to pare back positions ahead of today’s Industrial Production and Consumer confidence data. The outcome is expected to confirm the current slack in the economy with the market looking for some concrete signs of recovery to lend its support back with the Yen. For now, Dollar bids remain firm around 107.50.
Pound
- The Pound’s crashed towards its second line of support at the 1.8760-75 region before inching back above 1.88. It remains within its recent broad range and is mildly supported on concerns of build up in inflationary pressures. Key local data is eyed next week to get further clues. A break below the above mentioned support zone could accelerate losses down towards 1.8655-70.
Australian Dollar
- The Australian dollar took cue from the fall in commodity prices and slipped towards 0.7670 and is likely to go back towards the 0.7635-40 support zone. Gold went to its two month low as the support for the Greenback grows. The pair would be driven by U.S. TIC’s data and for now the market is looking to sell on any break above 0.7725.
Economic Data Released
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Actual |
Outcome |
|
|
|
4Q GDP q/q |
Euro-Zone |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Remains unrevised with growth forecasts also unchanged. |
|
|
|
February Business Inventories |
|
0.9% |
0.5% |
In line with expectations but sales declined. |
|
Upcoming Economic Releases
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Forecast |
Expectation |
|
|
March Consumer Confidence |
|
47.7 |
47.9 |
Expected to inch higher but remains patchy. |
|
|
Treasury International Capital Net Flows |
|
$91.5Bn |
$65.0Bn |
Hedge funds led to the sharp rise last month should stabilize back below. |
|
|
March Industrial Production m/m |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
Should stay around recent levels with manufacturing sector on a firm footing. |
FOREX Technical Analysis
EUR/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.2767 and high was 1.2907.
The pair closed at 1.2810.
The pair broke below 1.28 with the next support crucial at 1.2740-60 which targets its yearly low levels. A decisive break below could accelerate losses down to 1.2650-75 or further down. On the upside mild selling pressure exists around 1.2875 with a stronger one around 1.2925. The pair could get a decisive push depending on the strength of the TIC’s data released at
Key resistance is seen at 1.2875 followed by 1.2955 while support starts at 1.2755 followed by 1.2675.
USD/JPY – Yesterday’s low was 107.24 and high was 108.41.
The pair closed at 108.13.
Dollar’s momentum has pushed it back over 108 with mild resistance around d108.55 followed by a stronger one around 108.85-109.10. Key Japanese data is eyed for fresh direction with decent size Dollar bids in the 107.50-75 zone with very strong support in the 106.90-107.10 region.
Key Resistance is seen at 108.55 followed by 109.15 while support starts at 107.55 followed by 106.95.
GBP/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.8758 and high was 1.8942.
The pair closed at 1.8807.
It has broken below 1.88 with 1.8760-75 the next key support level with a decisive break below likely to accelerate losses down to 1.8655-70. On the upside resistance lies around 1.8875 with very strong selling interest on any rally towards 1.8940-55. Decisive movements might eventuate after key local data is released next week.
Key Resistance is seen at 1.8875 followed by 1.8945 while support starts at 1.8765 followed by 1.8695.
Australian Dollar
AUD/USD – Yesterday’s low was 0.7678 and high was 0.7773.
The pair closed at 0.7692.
The Aussie slipped as commodity prices tumbled and is looking vulnerable for further losses towards 0.7625. On the upside selling interest starts from 0.7725 with strong resistance around 0.7755. Cue is taken from other majors for today’s movement.
Key Resistance is seen at 0.7725 followed by 0.7775 while support starts at 0.7655 followed by 0.7605.
Kunal ‘Kris’ Sharma
Forex Analyst
Australian Financial Services License 246566
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