FOREX Trading Australia Daily Outlook 27/04/2005

FOREX Outlook 27/04/05 (02:00 GMT)

FOREX Trading Australia FOREX Trading Australia – Foreign Exchange Market Summary

Dollar

• Dollar remained firm on lack of any reasons to sell it, with New home sales surging to an all time high while poor data continued from other regions providing good support for the Greenback. The drop in Consumer Confidence index was rightly ignored by the market as it is not reflective of future trends with the sudden spike in oil prices the main catalyst for the drop. The focus shifts to today’s Durable Goods orders and tomorrow’s GDP data.

Euro

• The Euro doesn’t have much going for it to push decisively higher and in the current scenario, below par U.S. data appears to be the only way it could do that. German inflation data came below expectations as food and other common item prices have dropped while import prices have surged. Today’s data is also expected to disappoint and the Euro remains vulnerable.

Yen

• The Yen’s recent rally finally lost steam as Yuan revaluation story has subsided while poor data provided a reality check on the sluggish economic conditions in Japan. Core inflation declined again, its 7^th consecutive year of decline but signs point towards an improvement be it in a very slow and gradual manner. For now, Dollar has strong bids around 105.50.

Pound

• The Pound eased further on a general firm tone of the Dollar and much lower than expected outcome in the CBI Industrial Trends Orders. The report had inherent weaknesses with high oil prices having a telling effect. It has decent above 1.90 with a break below bringing the pivot region of 1.8940-55 back into focus.

Australian Dollar

• The Australian dollar slipped this morning (Pacific Time) as key CPI data has come in lower than expected. It has gone towards its support mark around 0.7750 and remains vulnerable. The New Zealand Dollar has fallen back towards 0.72 after breaking above 0.73 a day before as the Business Confidence Index has fallen to its lowest level in two years with its high interest rate at 6.75% stiffening growth.

• Gold prices have shown good resilience in spite of the Greenback remaining firm and this could augur well for a rally higher. It is hovering around the pivot region of 435.50-436.75 with decent support above 430.

Economic Data Released

Upcoming Economic Releases

*Only key potential market moving data is mentioned, for a detailed Economic Calendar please click on the ‘Financial Calendar’ link on the web-site.

FOREX Technical Analysis

EUR/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.2945 and high was 1.3013.
The pair closed at 1.2975.

The pair once again dipped down to the strong support zone at 1.2940-55 where good buying interest came up but the pair remains vulnerable to further losses if the support mark breaks. Very strong support and buying interest exists around 1.2875-1.29. On the upside mild resistance exist around 1.3045 with a break above bringing into focus the very strong resistance zone at 1.3075-1.31.

Key resistance is seen at 1.3045 followed by 1.3115 while support starts at 1.2945 followed by 1.2875.

USD/JPY –Yesterday’s low was 105.56 and high was 106.16.
The pair closed at 106.13.

With the Yuan story back in shadows, poor data from Japan has pushed the pair back towards 106.25. Mild resistance exists in the 106.55-70 zone with decent selling interest on any foray towards 107.25. On the down side Dollar bids are strong around 105.50 with very strong support in the 105.10-25 region.

Key Resistance is seen at 106.75 followed by 107.45 while support starts at 105.45 followed by 105.15.

GBP/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.9019 and high was 1.9131.
The pair closed at 1.9152.

Poor U.K. data has sent the pair break below the support zone at 1.9045-60 and it remains vulnerable for further losses. Next strong support mark exists at 1.8975 followed by the pivot region at 1.8940-55. On the upside 1.9125 hold mild resistance with a break above bringing into focus the strong resistance zone at 1.9170-85.

Key Resistance is seen at 1.9125 followed by 1.9185 while support starts at 1.9015 followed by 1.8945.

Australian Dollar

AUD/USD – Yesterday’s low was 0.7762 and high was 0.7812.
The pair closed at 0.7781.

Poor data has sent the Aussie slip back towards the support mark at 0.7750 and looks vulnerable for further losses. Good support exists in the 0.7710-25 zone followed by decent buying interest above 0.7675. On the upside any foray towards 0.78 should lead to selling interest with strong resistance around 0.7825.

Key Resistance is seen at 0.7795 followed by 0.7830 while support starts at 0.7725. followed by 0.7675.

Kunal ‘Kris’ Sharma
Forex Analyst

Australian Financial Services License 246566

Easy-Forex makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites and the information contained does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. Therefore you should consider whether these products are appropriate in view of your objectives, financial situation and needs as well as considering the risks associated in dealing with those products