Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 26/06/2006

June 26, 2006

MARKET SUMMARY –26JUNE06 (05:00GMT)

  • The Dollar continued to strengthen against the majors even in the face of a worse than expected durable goods orders, as the market factored in a possible rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in August as well as one later this week. US durable goods orders fell by 0.3% in May, whereas the market was expecting a rise of 0.5%. In other markets, the Dow Jones retreated 30 points after trading over a 100 point range, and the NASDAQ gave up 1.5 points. Crude oil prices remained relatively stable as higher US demand compared to a year ago helped to support current levels. Crude oil rose US3c a barrel to US$70.87. On the data front, US new home sales are due out today.

  • The Euro traded in a range of 1.2479 to 1.2587, before closing at 1.2506 in the New York session. Looking ahead, the Eurozone current account is due out later today.

  • The Japanese yen traded in a range of 115.77 to 116.59 versus the dollar, before closing at 116.55 in the New York session.

  • The Sterling traded in a range of 1.8127 to 1.8312, before closing at 1.8280 in the New York session.

  • The Aussie traded in a range of 0.7304 to 0.7349, before closing at 0.7318 in the New York session.

  • Gold rose by US$2.60 to US$588.00 an ounce defying a weaker oil price and stronger greenback as the market covered their short positions ahead of the weekend.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2403 1.2478 1.2515 1.2589 1.2681
USD/JPY 114.37 115.76 116.40 116.66 116.95
GBP/USD 1.7916 1.8126 1.8195 1.8315 1.8316
AUD/USD 0.7237 0.7270 0.7320 0.7424 0.7450

  • Euro 1.2515

Initial support at 1.2478 (June 23 low) followed by 1.2403 (50% retracement of the 1.1951 to 1.2980 rally). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2589 (June 23 reaction high) followed by 1.2681(Jun 22 high).

  • Yen 116.40

Initial support is located at 115.76 (June 23 low) followed by 114.37 (Jun 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 116.66 (61.8% retracement of the 121.41 to 108.98 decline) followed by 116.95 (76.4% retracement of the 119.41 to 108.98 decline).

  • Pound – 1.8195

Initial support at 1.8126 (June 23 low) followed by 1.7916 (61.8% retracement of the 1.7230 to 1.9027 rally). Initial resistance is now at 1.8315 (Jun 23 reaction high) followed by 1.8316 (Jun 13 low).

  • Aussie – 0.7320

Initial support at 0.727 (April 17 low) followed by 0.7237 (Apr 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7424 (June 22 high) followed by 0.745 (June 16 high).

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