Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 28/06/2006

June 28, 2006

MARKET SUMMARY –28JUNE06 (05:00GMT)

  • The Dollar traded within a relatively narrow range in the overnight session against the majors as the market seems poised for any decision by the Federal Reserve ahead of its 2 day meeting. Any volatility was dampened by US home sales falling to 6.67 million in May which was marginally higher than expectations which predicted a drop to 6.64 million. US consumer confidence rose to 105.7, beating market estimates of 103.8. In other markets, the Dow Jones index fell by 120pts and the NASDAQ retreated by 33pts as a perceived slowdown in the economy weighed in on housing and car maker stocks. Crude oil rose by US12c a barrel to US$71.92 as data due out this week is expected to show continuing high demand for gasoline in the US. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve convenes for a 2 day meeting to discuss a possible rate hike on Thursday.

  • The Euro traded in a range of 1.2564 to 1.2617, before closing at 1.2577 in the New York session. On the data front, German IFO Survey came in better than expected climbing to 106.8 in June from a revised 105.7 in May, beating market estimates of 103.5.

  • The Japanese yen traded in a range of 115.88 to 116.88 versus the dollar, before closing at 116.29 in the New York session. On the data front, Retail trade came in at 0.1% beating estimates of a -0.6%. Looking ahead, industrial production is due out tomorrow.

  • The Sterling traded in a range of 1.8188 to 1.8262, before closing at 1.8213 in the New York session.

  • The Aussie traded in a range of 0.7314 to 0.7346, before closing at 0.7324 in the New York session.

  • Gold fell by US$3.30 to US$584.40 an ounce as the market seems frustrated in gold not being able to reach US$600 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2403 1.2478 1.2580 1.2620 1.2681
USD/JPY 114.37 115.76 116.25 116.72 116.95
GBP/USD 1.7916 1.8126 1.8225 1.8315 1.8316
AUD/USD 0.7237 0.7270 0.7325 0.7424 0.7450

  • Euro 1.2580

Initial support at 1.2478 (June 23 low) followed by 1.2403 (50% retracement of the 1.1951 to 1.2980 rally). Initial resistance is now located at 1.262 (June 27 high) followed by 1.2681(Jun 22 high).

  • Yen 116.25

Initial support is located at 115.76 (June 23 low) followed by 114.37 (Jun 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 116.72 (Jun 26 high) followed by 116.95 (76.4% retracement of the 119.41 to 108.98 decline).

  • Pound – 1.8225

Initial support at 1.8126 (June 23 low) followed by 1.7916 (61.8% retracement of the 1.7230 to 1.9027 rally). Initial resistance is now at 1.8315 (Jun 23 reaction high) followed by 1.8316 (Jun 13 low).

  • Aussie – 0.7325

Initial support at 0.727 (April 17 low) followed by 0.7237 (Apr 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7424 (June 22 high) followed by 0.745 (June 16 high).

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