Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 05/07/2006

July 5, 2006

MARKET SUMMARY –5JULY06 (05:00GMT)

  • The Dollar experienced relatively flat trading in the overnight session as thin volumes dominated the market due to the US Independence Day holiday. In other markets, due to the US public holiday the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ were closed for trading. Crude oil remained steady below US$73.00.

  • The Euro traded in a range of 1.2789 to 1.2820, before closing at 1.2798 in the New York session. Looking ahead, PMI services and retail sales for the Eurozone are due out today.

  • The Japanese yen traded in a range of 114.42 to 114.73 versus the dollar, before closing at 114.81 in the New York session. On the data front, leading indicators are due out tomorrow.

  • The Sterling traded in a range of 1.8426 to 1.8478, before closing at 1.8442 in the New York session. Looking ahead, the Bank of England meet to discuss whether or not to change interest rates.

  • The Aussie traded in a range of 0.7436 to 0.7470, before closing at 0.7445 in the New York session. On the data front, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates steady at 5.75%.

  • Gold retreated by US$3 to US$622 in thin trading.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2515 1.2655 1.2775 1.2862 1.2935
USD/JPY 113.76 114.09 114.95 115.25 116.72
GBP/USD 1.8090 1.8262 1.8430 1.8500 1.8561
AUD/USD 0.7269 0.7378 0.7440 0.7466 0.7470

  • Euro 1.2775

Initial support at 1.2655 (June 30 low) followed by 1.2515 (June 28 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2862 (76.4% retracement of the 1.2980 to 1.2478 decline) followed by 1.2935 (Jun 6 high).

  • Yen 114.95

Initial support is located at 114.09 (July 3 low) followed by 113.76 (38.2% retracement of the 108.98 to 116.72 rally). Initial resistance is now at 115.25 (Jun 30 high) followed by 116.72 (June 26 high).

  • Pound – 1.8430

Initial support at 1.8262 (June 30 low) followed by 1.8090 (June 29 reaction low). Initial resistance is now at 1.8500 (Jun 30 high) followed by 1.8561 (Jun 16 reaction high).

  • Aussie – 0.7440

Initial support at 0.7378 (June 30 low) followed by 0.7269 (June 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7466 (July 3 high) followed by 0.7470 (38.2% retracement of the 0.7795 to 0.7269 decline).

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