Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 10/07/2006

July 10, 2006

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –10JULY06 (05:00GMT)

  • U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) weakened against the major currencies in the Friday night forex trading session as US non-farm payrolls disappointed coming in below forecasts. Non-farm payrolls increased by 121k for June, considerably below market expectations of 175k. This compares with a May result of 75k. In other markets, the Dow Jones finished lower by 135pts and the NASDAQ traded down 25pts on the back of profit downgrades by 3M. Crude oil finished lower by US$1.05 a barrel to US$74.10 after profit taking helped to ease oil back off its record highs.

  • The Euro (EUR) traded in a range of 1.2770 to 1.2865, before closing at 1.2811 in the New York session.

  • The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded in a range of 113.86 to 115.27 versus the dollar, before closing at 114.03 in the New York session.

  • The Sterling (GBP) traded in a range of 1.8358 to 1.8538, before closing at 1.8508 in the New York session. Looking ahead, UK producer prices are due out today.

  • The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded in a range of 0.7453 to 0.7515, before closing at 0.7512 in the New York session.

  • Gold (XAU) fell by US$1.50 to US$634.80 an ounce as profit takers took advantage before the close of the week. Base metals in general were mixed with Nickel rising and Copper falling by 2.3% and 1.4% respectively.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2702 1.2764 1.2795 1.2862 1.2935
USD/JPY 112.85 113.76 113.90 115.31 115.80
GBP/USD 1.8295 1.8355 1.8500 1.8549 1.8559
AUD/USD 0.7407 0.7452 0.7510 0.7532 0.7547

  • Euro 1.2795

Initial support at 1.2764 (Jul 7 low) followed by 1.2702 (38.2% retracement of the 1.2478 to 1.2841 advance). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2862 (76.4% retracement of the 1.2980 to 1.2478 decline) followed by 1.2935 (Jun 6 high).

  • Yen 113.90

Initial support is located at 113.76 (38.2% retracement of the 108.98 to 116.72 advance) followed by 112.85 (50% retracement of the 108.98 to 116.72 advance). Initial resistance is now at 115.31 (Jul 7 high) followed by 115.8 (Jul 5 high).

  • Pound – 1.8500

Initial support at 1.8355 (Jul 7 low) followed by 1.8295 (50% retracement of the 1.8090 to 1.8500 advance). Initial resistance is now at 1.8549 (Jun 16 reaction high) followed by 1.8559 (50% retracement of the 1.9027 to 1.8090 decline).

  • Australian Dollar – 0.7510

Initial support at 0.7452 (Jul 7 low) followed by 0.7407 (Jul 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7532 (50% retracement of the 0.7795 to 0.7269 decline) followed by 0.7547 (Jun 5 corrective high).

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