Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 24/07/2006

July 24, 2006

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –24JULY06 (05:00GMT)

  • U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was generally weaker in the Friday night foreign exchange trading session as hopes of another rate hike in August by the Federal Reserve continue to fade. The forex market seems to be lingering on the words of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week, after he delivered a dovish speech to congress hinting at a pause in interest rate hikes in the face of a slowing US economy. In other markets, the Dow Jones index retreated by 59pts while the NASDAQ gave up 19pts after a mixed session with a downgrade in earnings by Dell and a share buy-back scheme from Microsoft dominating the market action for the day. Crude oil rose US16c a barrel to US$74.73 as talk emerged that OPEC wants to avoid high prices to prevent harm to global economic growth.

  • The Euro (EUR) traded within a low of 1.2655 and a high of 1.2712, before closing at 1.2695 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Eurozone industrial production is due out today.

  • The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded within a low of 115.83 and a high of 117 versus the dollar, before closing at 116.20 in the New York session.

  • The Sterling (GBP) traded within a low of 1.8530 and a high of 1.8598, before closing at 1.8590 in the New York session.

  • The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded within a low of 0.7492 and a high of 0.7544, before closing at 0.7530 in the New York session.

  • Gold (XAU) fell by US$12.30 to US$620.20 an ounce as market traders took profit in light volume trading conditions.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2456 1.2586 1.2655 1.2709 1.2768
USD/JPY 115.15 115.67 116.70 117.14 117.89
GBP/USD 1.8413 1.8469 1.8545 1.8595 1.8669
AUD/USD 0.7399 0.7489 0.7515 0.7568 0.7594
XAU/USD 574.85 594.25 617.00 645.50 654.50

  • Euro 1.2655

Initial support at 1.2586 (Jul 20 low) followed by 1.2456 (Jul 19 corrective low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2709 (61.8% retracement of the 1.2865 to 1.2456 decline) followed by 1.2768 (76.4% retracement of the 1.2865 to 1.2456 decline).

  • Yen 116.70

Initial support is located at 115.67 (50% retracement 113.45 to 117.89 &amp Jul 17 low) followed by 115.15 (61.8% retracement of the 113.45 to 117.89 advance). Initial resistance is now at 117.14 (Jul 21 high) followed by 117.89 (Jul 20 corrective high).

  • Pound – 1.8545

Initial support at 1.8469 (Jul 21 low) followed by 1.8413 (Jul 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.8595 (July 21 high) followed by 1.8669 (61.8% retracement of the 1.9027 to 1.8090 decline).

  • Australian Dollar – 0.7515

Initial support at 0.7489 (Jul 20 low) followed by 0.7399 (Jul 5 corrective low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7568 (July 13 reaction high) followed by 0.7594 (61.8% retracement of the 0.7795 to 0.7269 decline).

  • Gold – 617

Initial support at 594.25 (61.8% retracement of the 543.50 to 676.35 advance) followed by 574.85 (76.4% retracement of the 543.50 to 676.35 advance). Initial resistance is now at 645.5 (Jul 20 high) followed by 654.5 (Jul 18 corrective high).

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