Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 28/08/2006

August 28, 2006

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –28 AUGUST06 (05:00GMT)

  • U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) edged higher against the majors in the overnight foreign exchange trading session as the talk from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke steered clear of commenting on the US economy or Federal policy. In other markets, the Dow Jones index fell by 20pts while the NASDAQ rose by 3pts as fears grow a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico could threaten oil producing establishments there. Crude oil as a result rose by US15c to US$72.51 a barrel.

  • The Euro (EUR) traded within a low of 1.2726 and a high of 1.2783, before closing at 1.2755 in the New York session. Looking ahead, M3 money supply is due out today.

  • The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded within a low of 116.43 and a high of 117.40 versus the dollar, before closing at 117.30 in the New York session. Looking ahead, unemployment rate and household spending is due out tomorrow.

  • The Sterling (GBP) traded within a low of 1.8831 and a high of 1.8916, before closing at 1.8875 in the New York session. On the data front, UK GDP came in on expectations at 0.8% for the month and 2.6% year on year. Looking ahead, the UK enjoy a summer bank holiday today.

  • The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded within a low of 0.7550 and a high of 0.7600, before closing at 0.7565 in the New York session.
  • Gold (XAU) rose by US$2.30 to US$620.80 an ounce in response to higher oil prices and a firmer base metal market.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2641 1.2695 1.2765 1.2854 1.2941
USD/JPY 115.82 116.43 117.20 117.87 118.22
GBP/USD 1.8775 1.8830 1.8880 1.8999 1.9026
AUD/USD 0.7489 0.7546 0.7570 0.7670 0.7702
XAU/USD 607.67 613.90 622.00 630.50 633.10

  • Euro 1.2765

Initial support at 1.2695 (Aug 15 low) followed by 1.2641 (61.8% retracement of the 1.2456 to 1.2941 advance). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2854 (Aug 23 high) followed by 1.2941 (Aug 21 high).

  • Yen 117.20

Initial support is located at 116.43 (Aug 25 low) followed by 115.82 (Aug 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 117.87 (July 19 high) followed by 118.22 (Apr 18 high).

  • Pound – 1.8880

Initial support at 1.883 (Aug 25 low) followed by 1.8775 (Aug 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.8999 (Aug 21 high) followed by 1.9026 (Aug 16 high).

  • Australian Dollar – 0.7570

Initial support at 0.7546 (38.2% retracement of the 0.7269 to 0.7717 advance) followed by 0.7489 (Jul 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.767 (Aug 23 high) followed by 0.7702 (Aug 16 high).

  • Gold – 622

Initial support at 613.9 (Aug 21 low) followed by 607.67 (Aug 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 630.5 (Aug 23 high) followed by 633.1 (Aug 14 high).

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