Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 31/08/2006

August 31, 2006

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –31 AUGUST06 (05:00GMT)

  • U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) remained largely steady against the majors in the overnight foreign exchange trading session as a host of indicators from the US failed to create any substantial volatility in the markets. US GDP for the second quarter was revised up to 2.9% from 2.5% but less than the 3.0% expectation. Core PCE for the second quarter came in on expectations at 4.1%. In other markets, the Dow Jones traded in a tight range rising by 13pts and the NASDAQ also rose by 13pts. Crude oil finished over US$70 a barrel at US$70.03, up US32c, although during the session it did trade below US$69 a barrel. Looking ahead, Personal income/spending and the Core PCE index for Jul are due out tonight.

  • The Euro (EUR) traded within a low of 1.2813 and a high of 1.2853, before closing at 1.2832 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Eurozone GDP, HICP estimate, and ECB interest rate announcement are due out today.

  • The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded within a low of 116.61 and a high of 117.28 versus the dollar, before closing at 117.15 in the New York session. On the data front, PMI manufacturing came in at 54.6, down from previous result of 55.7 in July. Industrial production came in at a disappointing -0.9% for July from a 0.7% estimate.

  • The Sterling (GBP) traded within a low of 1.8873 and a high of 1.9061, before closing at 1.9043 in the New York session. On the data front, GfK consumer confidence is due out today.

  • The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded within a low of 0.7620 and a high of 0.7633, before closing at 0.7632 in the New York session.
  • Gold (XAU) strengthened by US$7.00 to US$616.10 an ounce on the back of a weaker US Dollar.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2695 1.2723 1.2840 1.2854 1.2941
USD/JPY 116.09 116.42 117.00 117.42 117.87
GBP/USD 1.8775 1.8830 1.9045 1.9063 1.9146
AUD/USD 0.7489 0.7546 0.7635 0.7673 0.7702
XAU/USD 602.66 607.67 618.00 630.50 633.10

  • Euro 1.2840

Initial support at 1.2723 (Aug 25 low) followed by 1.2695 (Aug 15 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2854 (Aug 23 high) followed by 1.2941 (Aug 21 high).

  • Yen 117

Initial support is located at 116.42 (Aug 25 low) followed by 116.09 (Aug 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 117.42 (Aug 25 high) followed by 117.87 (Jul 19 high).

  • Pound – 1.9045

Initial support at 1.883 (Aug 25 low) followed by 1.8775 (Aug 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9063 (Aug 30 high) followed by 1.9146 (Aug 8 trend high).

  • Australian Dollar – 0.7635

Initial support at 0.7546 (38.2% retracement of the 0.7269 to 0.7717 advance) followed by 0.7489 (Jul 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7673 (Aug 23 high) followed by 0.7702 (Aug 16 high).

  • Gold – 618

Initial support at 607.67 (Aug 18 low) followed by 602.66 (Jul 24 reaction low). Initial resistance is now at 630.5 (Aug 23 high) followed by 633.1 (Aug 14 high).

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