12/09/06
last week’s currency trading review
The Dollar was stronger against all major currencies with the exception of the Japanese yen as hawkish comments by a Fed official suggested that the Fed may not be done raising rates. This week saw little in the way of data releases and so the market focused more on comments by officials. The Euro suffered against both the dollar and the Japanese yen as comments by German Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Mirrow hinted that the focus of the G7 meeting later in September will be on Yen weakness. The Euro closed last week at 1.2675 having started the week at 1.2835. The Japanese yen was steady against the dollar but a good deal stronger verses the other major currencies following the comments by Mirrow. USD/JPY closed last week at 116.86 having started the week at 117.10. The
The forex trading week preview
There is quite a comprehensive range of inflation data out in the coming week. Analysts are expecting benign reports out of the
In the States the drop in oil prices is expected to have had some impact on the August US CPI data (Friday) although the decline at the wholesale level did not get passed through fully into retail prices during the month. The drop in petrol prices is expected to have a negative impact on overall retail sales (Thursday). The other negative for sales on the month was the reported decline in car sales. On the flip side, the drop in petrol prices could help consumer sentiment and the provisional reading from the
In the Eurozone the data calendar is a light one. The final inflation estimate for August (Friday) is expected to confirm the previously-released flash estimate. In the
In
Finally, the market will pay close attention to the upcoming G7 meeting to be held in
Key Weekly Pivot levels
Currency | Sup 2 | Sup 1 | Spot | Res 1 | Res 2 |
EUR/USD | 1.2570 | 1.2641 | 1.2705 | 1.2740 | 1.2836 |
USD/JPY | 116.10 | 116.60 | 117.55 | 117.89 | 118.90 |
GBP/USD | 1.8527 | 1.8601 | 1.8655 | 1.8773 | 1.8872 |
AUD/USD | 0.7442 | 0.7495 | 0.7505 | 0.7601 | 0.7683 |
XAU/USD | 561.00 | 574.85 | 590.00 | 606.75 | 619.40 |
- Euro 1.2705
Initial support at 1.2641 (61.8% retracement of the 1.2456 to 1.2941 advance) followed by 1.257 (76.4% retracement of the 1.2456 to 1.2941 advance). Initial resistance is now located at 1.274 (Sep 11 high) followed by 1.2836 (Sep 6 high).
- Yen 116.75
Initial support is located at 116.6 (Sep 11 low) followed by 116.1 (Sep 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 117.89 (Jul 19 reaction high) followed by 118.9 (Apr 11 reaction high).
- Pound – 1.8655
Initial support at 1.8601 (Sep 11 low) followed by 1.8527 (Jul 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.8773 (Sep 8 high) followed by 1.8872 (Sep 7 high).
- Australian Dollar – 0.7525
Initial support at 0.7495 (50% retracement of the 0.7269 to 0.7722 rally) followed by 0.7442 (61.8% retracement of the 0.7269 to 0.7722 rally). Initial resistance is now at 0.7601 (Sep 8 high) followed by 0.7683 (Sep 7 high).
- Gold – 605
Initial support at 574.85 (76.4% retracement of the 543.50 to 676.35 advance) followed by 561.0 (Jun 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 606.75 (Sep 11 high) followed by 619.4 (Sep 8 high).