Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 27/12/2006

December 27, 2006

Dollar strengthens against the majors in a thinly traded forex market ahead of new year celebrations.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –27 DECEMBER 06 (23:30GMT)

  • U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) strengthened against the majors in thinly traded sessions post-Christmas as the Richmond Fed index came in worse than expected at -6 compared to a 5 estimate. In other markets, the Dow Jones index rose 64pts and the NASDAQ climbed 12pts as markets wind down ahead of New Year celebrations. Crude oil fell US19c to US$60.91 as market waits for commentary with regards to OPEC cuts. Looking ahead, New home sales are due out tonight.

  • The Euro (EUR) traded within a low of 1.3090 and a high of 1.3142, before closing at 1.3097 in the New York session.

  • The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded within a low of 118.72 and a high of 119.23 versus the dollar, before closing at 119.12 in the New York session. On the data front, retails sales came in at -0.1% compared to a 0.5% estimate. Looking ahead, industrial production is due out tomorrow.

  • The Sterling (GBP) traded within a low of 1.9519 and a high of 1.9598, before closing at 1.9635 in the New York session.

  • The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded within a low of 0.7812 and a high of 0.7864, before closing at 0.7815 in the New York session.

  • Gold (XAU) rose by US20c to US$627.10 an ounce in a quiet market.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.3052 1.3098 1.3120 1.3247 1.3293
USD/JPY 117.44 118.22 118.90 119.41 119.67
GBP/USD 1.9434 1.9558 1.9560 1.9751 1.9849
AUD/USD 0.7769 0.7774 0.7830 0.7880 0.7897
XAU/USD 602.40 612.17 625.00 629.10 638.10

  • Euro 1.3120

Initial support at 1.3098 (76.4% retracement of the 1.3052 to 1.3246 advance) followed by 1.3052 (Dec 18 corrective low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3247 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3368 to 1.3052 decline) followed by 1.3293 (Dec 12 high &amp 76.4% ret 1.3368 to 1.3052 decline).

  • Yen 118.90

Initial support is located at 118.22 (Dec 22 low) followed by 117.44 (Dec 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 119.41 (Feb 3 high) followed by 119.67 (Oct 24 corrective high).

  • Pound – 1.9560

Initial support at 1.9558 (Dec 21 corrective low) followed by 1.9434 (Dec 18 corrective low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9751 (Dec 20 corrective high) followed by 1.9849 (Dec 1 trend high).

  • Australian Dollar – 0.7830

Initial support at 0.7774 (50% retracement of the 0.7614 to 0.7933 advance) followed by 0.7769 (Former resistance from Nov 1). Initial resistance is now at 0.788 (Dec 19 high) followed by 0.7897 (Dec 13 corrective high).

  • Gold – 625

Initial support at 612.07 (Dec 18 low) followed by 602.4 (Oct 20 high). Initial resistance is now at 629.1 (Dec 15 high) followed by 638.1 (Dec 8 high).

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