Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 13/02/2007

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –13 FEBRUARY 07 (23:30GMT)

• U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was strong against most other majors on Monday following hawkish comments from Fed officials on Friday pushing treasury yields higher, helping the cause of the USD. As a result the Dollar rose against the Euro to nearly 0.4%. Overall the USD was up against all other majors. In other news, the US Federal Budget was in a surplus by US$38.24 bln for the month of January. In US share markets, the NASDAQ dropped by 9.44 points (-0.38%) whilst the Dow Jones also dropped by 28.28 (-0.22%). Crude oil dropped by US$2.20 to US$57.69 a barrel. Looking ahead, key data in the form of the US Trade Balance is scheduled for release later on today, with market expectations at -59.50 bln worse than the previous figure of -58.23 bln. Imports are likely to have risen on the back of warm weather boosting consumer spending and manufacturing output.

• The Euro (EUR) dropped by 0.4% following negative comments made by Fed officials as stated above. Overall the EUR traded with a low of 1.2941 and a high of 1.3037 before closing the day at 1.2960 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Tuesday is a heavy data day for the Eurozone starting with the release of the GDP for the fourth quarter made public. Markets are forecasting continual growth with a figure of 0.60% higher than the previous 0.50%, therefore pushing the year-on-year growth to 3.0% (a rate not seen since 2000). In other key data, the much anticipated German ZEW survey is out, although recent months have seen a loss in its importance (when compared to the German IFO). For the month of February the index is expected to show a significant improvement with forecasts at 5.0 higher than the January figure of -3.6. Furthermore Eurozone Industrial Production is set for release with expectations showing a growth for the month of December jumping to 0.30% higher than November 0.2%.

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) dropped to a near four year low against the Dollar after G-7 officials wrapped up a weekend meeting without saying JPY weakness was a threat to the global economy. Overall the, JPY traded within a range of a low 121.59 and a high of 122.10 before closing at 121.91 in the New York session.
• The Sterling (GBP) fell against the USD following a poor figure for PPI coming in softer than expected. Overall, the Sterling traded within range of a low 1.9440 and a high of 1.9566 before closing at 1.9468 by the end of the New York position.
• The Australian Dollar (AUD) dropped following negative testimonials released via the RBA policy statements. The general consensus being that the rate of 6.25% is likely to be the peak whilst no rate change is expected for 2007, as a result of inflationary pressures receding. Overall, the AUD traded within a range of 0.7713 as the low, 0.7783 as the high, before closing at 0.7714 in the New York session.

• Gold (XAU) fell sharply in line with lower oil prices. Gold dropped by US$5.70 an ounce to US$666.60.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

• Euro 1.2965

Initial support at 1.2940 (Feb 12 low) followed by 1.2911 (Feb 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3047 (Feb 9 high) followed by 1.3074 (Feb 2 high)

• Yen 121.85

Initial support is located at 120.99 (Feb 9 low) followed by 120.57 (Feb 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 122.20 (Jan 29 high) followed by 122.38 (61.8% retracement of the 135.18 to 101.67 decline).

• Pound – 1.9465

Initial support at 1.9438 (Feb 12 low) followed by 1.9426 (Jan 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9568 (Feb 12 high) followed by 1.9604 (Feb 9 high).

• Australian Dollar – 0.7720

Initial support at 0.7715 (Feb 2 corrective low) followed by 0.7697 (50% retracement of 0.7414-0.7982 and Jan 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7770 (Feb 12 high) followed by 0.7826 (Feb 9 high).

• Gold – 662.20

Initial support at 657.30 (Feb 9 low) followed by 648.00 (Feb 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 669.00 (Feb 9 high) followed by 676.35 (Jul 17 reaction high)