Buoyant US Retail Sales, Hawkish BoE quarterly report, Aussie Unemployment at fresh 33 year lows of 4.1%
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 14 FEBRUARY 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed versus a number of majors, holding firm on positive Retail Sales out of the U.S. for the month of January coming above expectations, as Core figures were released at 0.3% (F: 0.2% P: -0.3%R), whilst Headline figures came in at 0.3% (F: -0.2% P: -0.4%). In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ was up by 108.13 points (+1.21%) whilst the Dow Jones was also higher by 178.45 points (+1.45%). Crude oil was higher by US$0.36 a barrel to US$93.14 after Venezuela said it would stop supplying oil to EXXON Mobil. Thursday sees the weekly release of Initial Jobless claims, whilst Ben Bernanke, and Henry Paulson are scheduled to testify in front of the Senate Banking Committee
·The Euro (EUR) held firm, despite US retail sales unexpectedly rising for the month of January. In Eurozone specific news, Industrial Production declined by -0.2% for the month of December, well short of the forecasted figures of 0.6%, and inline with recent rhetoric surrounding slowing growth in the Eurozone. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4530 and a high of 1.4600 before closing the day at 1.4579 in the New York session. Looking ahead, key growth data in the form of GDP for the fourth quarter 0.3% (Forecast: 0.4% Previous: 0.8%)
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) fell to a one-month low against the dollar after U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose last month, allaying concern that the world’s biggest economy will slide into a recession and hurt global growth. The currency dropped against 14 of the 16 most-active currencies as U.S. stocks rose, signaling traders are more confident to bet on higher-yielding assets funded by loans in Japan. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low 107.00 and a high of 108.37 before closing the day 108.22 in the New York session. Japanese GDP data released on Thursday morning was released at 0.9% (Forecast: 0.4% Prior: 0.4%) for the fourth quarter.
·The Sterling (GBP) rallied to a two week high against the Euro after the Bank of England raised its inflation forecast, prompting traders to pare bets on interest-rate cuts from the UK. The Sterling Pound also traded at week highs versus the dollar as the central bank forecast in its quarterly inflation report on Wednesday that price growth will overshoot its 2 percent goal in two years even as “downside” risks to the economy remain. The pound also gained as a government report showed unemployment fell to a three-decade low in January. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9552 and a high of 1.9654 before closing the day at 1.9650 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) paired its weekly gains on positive retail sales figures from the US. The AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.8924 and high of 0.9046 before closing the day at 0.8951 in the New York session. Unemployment Rate for the Aussie is out on Thursday morning with forecast expected to be at 4.3%, same as the previous. UPDATE: Unemployment rate at 4.1%.
·Gold (XAU) little changed in New York, may fall on speculation a rally in equities will reduce the appeal of the precious metals as alternative investments. XAU traded with a low of 896.00 and a high of 910.00.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
| Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
| EUR/USD |
1.4366 |
1.4440 |
1.4555 |
1.4615 |
1.4637 |
| USD/JPY |
104.97 |
105.71 |
108.25 |
108.37 |
108.65 |
| GBP/USD |
1.9389 |
1.9403 |
1.9620 |
1.9666 |
1.9763 |
| AUD/USD |
0.8875 |
0.8916 |
0.8970 |
0.9086 |
0.9102 |
| XAU/USD |
885.00 |
896.70 |
906.40 |
927.31 |
936.80 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
·Euro – 1.4555
Initial support at 1.4440 (Feb 7 low) followed by 1.4366 (Jan 22 reaction low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4615 (Feb 12 high) followed by 1.4637 (38.2% retracement of the 1.4956 to 1.4440 decline).
·Yen – 108.25
Initial support is located at 105.71 (Jan 31 low) followed by 104.97 (Jan 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 107.66 (Feb 11 high) followed by 107.89 (Jan 28 high)
·Pound – 1.9620
Initial support at 1.9403 (Feb 11 low) followed by 1.9389 (Feb 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9643 (Feb 12 high) followed by 1.9763 (Feb 5 high)
·Australian Dollar – 0.8970
Initial support a 0.8916 (Feb 8 low) followed by 0.8875 (Feb 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9086 (Feb 12 high) followed by 0.9102 (Feb 4 high)
·Gold – 906.40
Initial support at 896.70 (Feb 13 low) followed by 885.0 (Feb 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 927.31 (Feb 11 high) followed by 936.80 (Feb 1 trend high)
