Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 18/02/2008

Poor data out of the US signals further economic concerns. BoJ keep rates on hold at 0.50% in a unanimous vote.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 18 FEBRUARY 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) fell across the board as disappointing data ensured the greenback remained heavily pressured. New York manufacturing and tumbling consumer confidence added to concern that the U.S. economy is headed for a recession. The NY Fed manufacturing survey fell to -11.72 for the month of February, signaling a contraction for the first time in almost 3 years, whilst Consumer Confidence recorded it lowest reading since 1992, coming in at 69.6. In US share markets, the NASDAQ was down by -10.74 points (-0.46%), whilst the Dow Jones also declined by -28.77 points (-0.23%). Crude oil fell from a five week high on speculation U.S. demand will drop after a report showed that consumer confidence slumped to the lowest level since 1992. However, Crude did end the day up by US$0.23 a barrel to US$95.69.

·The Euro (EUR) traded at a week high on the back of poor data out of the US, prompting investors to look for alternative currencies. Its rise of 1.3% versus the dollar is the biggest weekly advance since Dec 28, 2007. In Eurozone specific data, Trade Balance for the month of December declined by -4.2 bln, well short of the expected 2.4 bln rise. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4632 and a high of 1.4709 before closing the day at 1.4669 in the New York session.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) fell earlier after the Bank of Japan voted unanimously on Friday to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5 percent, as expected. With Governor Toshihiko Fukui citing the decision on the back of inflationary risks remaining low. The JPY capped its losses on the back of poor manufacturing data out of the US, ensuring the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.22 and a high of 108.32 before closing the day at 107.67 in the New York session.

·The Sterling (GBP) ceased five days of gains against the dollar as investors viewed the recent rally to be a misrepresentation of the UK economy, and future policy outcomes. However any further declines were limited on the back of poor US data. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9597 and a high of 1.9722 before closing the day at 1.9614 in the New York session.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) remained firm throughout the Asian session, and was buoyed by poor US data in the New York session. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9009 and a high of 0.9098 before closing the day at 0.9071 in the New York session.

·Gold (XAU) traded lower on the back of easing oil prices, as investors were subject to profit taking. XAU traded with a low of 898.70 and a high of 915.20.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.4680

Initial support at 1.4631 (Feb 15 low) followed by 1.4549 (Feb 14 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4698 (50% retracement of the 1.4956 to 1.4440 decline) followed by 1.4759 (61.8% retracement of the 1.4956 to 1.4440 decline).

·Yen – 107.85

Initial support is located at 107.00 (Feb 13 low) followed by 106.35 (Feb 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 108.67 (38.2% retracement of the 114.66 to 104.97 decline) followed by 109.82 (50% retracement of the 114.66 to 104.97 decline)

·Pound – 1.9575

Initial support at 1.9606 (Feb 15 low) followed by 1.9551 (Feb 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9738 (Feb 14 high) followed by 1.9763 (Feb 5 high)

·Australian Dollar – 0.9080

Initial support a 0.9005 (Feb 15 low) followed by 0.8954 (Feb 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9102 (Feb 4 high) followed by 0.9125 (Nov 12, 2007 high)

·Gold – 902.60

Initial support at 896.50 (Feb 13 low) followed by 885.0 (Feb 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 927.31 (Feb 11 high) followed by 936.80 (Feb 1 trend high)