Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 20/02/2008

RBA considered a 50 point hike. US CPI and FOMC minutes of key importance

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –20 FEBRUARY 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) in what was quiet data day, the Greenback trading in a range against a number of majors. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down -15.60 points (-0.67%) whilst the Dow Jones was also down by -10.99 pts (-0.09%). Crude oil broke level of US$100 a barrel last night, rising by US$4.51. Looking ahead key data in the form of Core CPI (Forecast: 0.2% Prior: 0.2%) and Housing Starts (Forecast: 1015K Prior: 1006K) is out on Wednesday. Although, focus will soon shift to the FOMC minutes of the Jan 30 meeting in which the members voted for a 50bps cut, for any indication of monetary policy outlooks.

·The Euro (EUR) gained versus the dollar ECB member Noyer said he “remains confident” about France‘s economic situation despite global economic turbulence. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4642 and a high of 1.4757 before closing the day at 1.4733 in the New York session.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) once again tracked stock prices as the N225 closed 0.9% higher. The JPY did depreciate against a number of majors all but the Sterling Pound. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.21 and a high of 108.30 before closing the day at 107.61 in the New York session.

·The Sterling (GBP) one of the few currencies that failed to gain versus the dollar as it remains pressured by the U.K. government’s plans to nationalize troubled lender Northern Rock Plc and by relatively dovish comments from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Besley yesterday. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9455 and a high of 1.9541 before closing the day at 1.9487 in the New York session.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) was boosted by hawkish RBA minutes during the Asian session, in which it was revealed that the members had considered a 50 bps rate hike, although the decision to increase by 25 bps on the 5^th of February was finely balanced. Such statements left the door open for another rate hike as early as march, boosting demand for the AUD. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9135 and a high of 0.9237 before closing the day at 0.9207 in the New York Session

·Gold (XAU) rallied on the back of higher energy prices. XAU rose by US$24.50 an ounce to US$930.60.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.4650

Initial support at 1.4549 (Feb 14 low) followed by 1.4496 (Feb 12 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4709 (Feb 15 low) followed by 1.4759 (61.8% retracement of the 1.4956 to 1.4440 decline).

·Yen – 108.20

Initial support is located at 107.27 (Feb 15 low) followed by 106.35 (Feb 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 108.67 (38.2% retracement of the 114.66 to 104.97 decline) followed by 109.82 (50% retracement of the 114.66 to 104.97 decline)

·Pound – 1.9510

Initial support at 1.9444 (Feb 12 low) followed by 1.9389 (Feb 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9738 (Feb 14 high) followed by 1.9763 (Feb 5 high)

·Australian Dollar – 0.9165

Initial support a 0.9005 (Feb 15 low) followed by 0.8954 (Feb 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9191 (76.4% retracement of 0.9400 to 0.8513) followed by 0.9321 (Nov 9 high)

·Gold – 906.40

Initial support at 896.50 (Feb 13 low) followed by 885.0 (Feb 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 927.31 (Feb 11 high) followed by 936.80 (Feb 1 trend high)