Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 14/03/2008

Dollar slumps on poor Retail Sales. Euro, Oil and XAU at record highs, as USDJPY breaks 100.00

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 14 MARCH 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) depreciated further on the high today as traders reacted to the probable bankruptcy of a major hedge fund, Carlyle Capital, is said to have defaulted on US$ 16 billion in margin calls associated with massive mortgage-backed securities positions and is the latest casualty from the ongoing credit market woes. In data news, Retail figures fell by -0.6% from the previous month, below expectations of a rise in 0.2%. In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ was down by 45.93 points (+0.52%) whilst the Dow Jones 35.50 points (+0.29%). Crude oil traded at a fresh intra-day high US$111.00 a barrel on Thursday. Crude rose for a seventh straight day up by US$0.26 a barrel to US$110.18. Looking ahead, CPI figures are released out of the U.S. this evening accompanied by the Michigan Sentiment Survey for the month of March.

·The Euro (EUR) traded at a record high of 1.5625 on Thursday on a battered dollar. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.5523 and a high of 1.5624 before closing the day 1.5584 in the New York session. Eurozone CPI figures are made public on Friday.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded at a fresh 12 year low on Thursday, breaking below the key 100.00 level on growing risk aversion. Further more the Japanese Yen set a record low against the Euro after a Carlyle Group fund defaulted on about $16.6 billion of debt, adding to turmoil in financial markets. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 99.77 (lowest level since Oct. 1995) and a high of 101.77 before closing the day at 101.03 in the New York session.

·The Sterling (GBP) reached a three month high and also snapped two days of declines versus the Euro. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 2.0256 and a high of 2.0390 before closing the day at 2.0289 in the New York session.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied on Thursday morning, as Unemployment Rate dropped to an all time low of 4.0% for the month February buoyed by 37.6K jobs created pushing the AUD towards 94 cents. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9331 and a high of 0.9451 before closing the day at 0.9440 in the New York session.

·Gold (XAU) traded above $1,000 an ounce for the first time in New York today on the sliding dollar. XAU traded with a low of 982.50 and a high of 999.90

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.5605

Initial support at 1.5283 (Mar 11 low) followed by 1.5262 (Mar 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5571 (Mar 12 high) followed by 1.5666 (bull channel resistance).

·Yen – 100.95

Initial support is located at 101.42 (Mar 7 low) followed by 101.26 (Nov 1999 low). Initial resistance is now at 103.59 (Mar 11 high) followed by 104.19 (Jan 23 high)

·Pound – 2.0305

Initial support at 1.9996 (Mar 11 high) followed by 1.9975 (Feb 27 resistance). Initial resistance is now at 2.0281 (Mar 12 high) followed by 2.0328 (Bull channel top)

·Australian Dollar – 0.9445

Initial support a 0.9147 (Mar 11 low) followed by 0.9122 (38.2% retracement of the 0.8513 to 0.9499 advance). Initial resistance is now at 0.9400 (round number resistance) followed by 0.9421 (Mar 3 high)

·Gold – 995.00

Initial support at 957.20 (Mar 4 low) followed by 949.00 (Feb 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 992.75 (Mar 5 high) followed by 1000.00 (Round Number)