Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 20/05/2008

USD strength ahead of big data day in the US and Europe

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 20th MAY 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) The dollar was generally bid today on the back of an unexpected rise in the leading indicators report of 0.1 vs 0.0 expected. The U.S share markets posted mixed results with NASDAQ down -12.76 points (-.50%) and DOW JONES up 41 points (.32%), Oil hovered at record highs around $127 per barrel on supply concerns. Looking ahead focus on U.S. PPI data tonight which is expected to come in at 0.4% for the month of April.

·The Euro (EURO) On the back of the stronger US data the Euro struggled to maintain early gains and finished lower by .5%. The EURUSD traded with a low of 1.5487 and a high of 1.5632 before closing the day at 1.5520 in the New York session. Important data out today from the Eurozone includes the German ZEW economic sentiment (expected 32) and German PPI (expected 0.5%).

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) The Dollar gained against the Yen on the back of a rise in US stocks and general Dollar strength, although it did give back some of its gains into the US close. The USDJPY traded with a low of 103.64 and a high of 104.69 before closing the day around 104.30 in the New York session.Looking ahead, Bank of Japan rate decision out today that most economists believe will be held at current levels of 0.5%.

·The Sterling (GBP) The Pound traded lower in line with the USD strength and recent negative economic reports. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9455 and a high of 1.9624 before closing the day at 1.9480 in the New York session. Looking ahead, no data out from UK today.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) The Aussie traded in a fairly tight range with stocks and strong commodities helping to take pressure of USD strength. AUS/JPY was very buoyant in line with higher stocks, once again trading at 99.80 levels very close to key 100 level. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9512 and a high of 0.9563 before closing the day at 0.9530 in the New York session. The RBA minutes are out today and the market will be studying this for any hints about future rate direction.

·Gold (XAU) Gold continue to be well supported above $900 with a three week high of $913.35 reached in overnight before easing back to $906

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.5525

Initial support at 1.5438 (May 16 low) followed by 1.5367 (May 12 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5632 (May 19 high) followed by 1.5652 (50% retracement of 1.6019 to 152.84).

·Yen – 104.40

Initial support is located at 103.39 (May 13 low) followed by 102.58 (May 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 105.44 (May 14 high) followed by key 105.71 (May 2 high).

·Pound – 1.9495

Initial support at 1.9443 (May 16 low) followed by 1.9363 (May 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9633 (May 12 high) followed by 1.9736 (May 7 high).

·Australian Dollar – 0.9530

Initial support a 0.9392 (May 16 low) followed by 0.9291 (May 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9574 (May 19 trend high) followed by 0.9597 (open this week + range last week).

·Gold – 905.00

Initial support at 880.5 (May 16 low) followed by 860.5 (May 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 913.8 (May 19 high) followed by 928.75 (Apr 21 high).