Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 27/05/2008

May 27, 2008

Little movement with London and New York on Holidays. Oil above $133

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 27th MAY 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was range bound against the majors with low liquidity due to London and NY holidays. The U.S share markets were closed due to Memorial Day. Crude oil gained $1 after Nigerian rebels blew up a pipeline, closing the New York session at $133.10 per barrel. Looking ahead, today there is some important housing data with US New Home Sales expected to come in at 522K. Alongside this is the Case-shiller National Home Price(HPI) composite expected to come in at-14.3%.

·The Euro (EURO) kept to a small range yesterday but received a boost from rising oil prices late in the day. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.5742 and a high of 1.5793 before closing the day at 1.5769 in the New York session. Looking ahead, German consumer confidence is out today along with German final GDP for the first quarter.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) managed to hold firm remaining in a tight range even with the Nikkei down over 2%. Strong bids from importers especially from the oil industry seen trailing down from 103.10 to 102.50 levels. USDJPY traded with a low of 103.14 and a high of 103.49 before closing the day around 103.43 in the New York session.Quiet day on the data front.

·The Sterling (GBP) range bound in quiet markets. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9760 and a high of 1.9832 before closing the day at 1.9815 in the New York session. Looking ahead, only BBA Mortgage approvals out today from the UK.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) kept to a tight range pivoting the .9600 level. AUDJPY was little changed at 99.30. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9586 and a high of 0.9619 before closing the day at 0.9606 in the New York session. Quiet day on the data front.

·Gold (XAU) gained $4 on inflation concerns and safe haven flows. Overall trading with a low of $924 and high of $929.5 ending the New York session at $929.10.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.5504

1.5612

1.5775

1.5814

1.5846

USD/JPY

101.91

102.58

103.40

104.38

104.48

GBP/USD

1.9614

1.9684

1.9815

1.9870

1.9881

AUD/USD

0.9511

0.9546

0.9610

0.9655

0.9723

XAU/USD

901.00

915.25

929.00

935.40

953.00

·Euro – 1.5775

Initial support at 1.5612 (38.2% retracement 1.5284-1.5814) followed by 1.5504 (May 20 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5814 (May 22 high) followed by 1.5846 (76.4% retracement 1.5284-1.5814)

·Yen – 103.40

Initial support is located at 102.58 (May 12 low) followed by 101.91 (38.2% retracement of 95.76-105.71). Initial resistance is now at 104.38 (May 22 high) followed by key 104.48 (May 20 high).

·Pound – 1.9815

Initial support at 1.9684 (May 22 low) followed by 1.9614 (May 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.987 (76.4% retracement of 2.00027-1.9363) followed by 1.9881 (50% retracement 2.0398-1.9393).

·Australian Dollar – 0.9610

Initial support a 0.9546 (May 22 low) followed by 0.9511 (May 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9655 (May 21 trend high) followed by 0.9723 (open this week + range last week*0.618).

·Gold – 929

Initial support at 915.25 (May 23 low) followed by 901 (May 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 935.4 (May 22 high) followed by 953.0 (Apr 17 high).

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