Record jump in Crude Oil as US Unemployment Rate sinks Dollar
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 9th June 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was hurt considerable after Friday’s jobs data showed a large increase in the US Unemployment Rate from 5.0% to 5.5%. The NonFarm payroll number was slightly better than expectations coming at -49K vs. the -57K forecast. Stocks plummeted, while Oil surged the most since the first Gulf war. The Dollar’s fall coincided with a sharp drop in US Interest rate hike expectations for the rest of the year. The US share markets had a very weak day, the NASDAQ was down 75.38 (-2.95%) and the Dow Jones was down 394 points (-3.13%). Crude Oil closed up $10.75 ending the New York session at record highs of $138.54 per barrel. Looking ahead, Pending home sales expected at -0.5%.
·The Euro (EUR) was buoyed by the weak US data, surging Oil and the continuing flow on from Trichet’s comments last week regarding a possible rate hike as early as July. As a result the Euro made good gains across most currencies on Friday. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5573 and a high of 1.5575 before closing the day at 1.5765 in the New York session. Looking ahead, German Trade Balance expected at 15.5B surplus.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) had a mixed day with crosses performing well but the fall in stocks weighed pulling the USDJPY off its 106 handle. EURJPY broke new ground again trading above the 166 level. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 104.95 and a high of 106.32 before closing the day around 105.10 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) in a light data day the pound took its direction from the Euro bouncing off its lows after the NonFarm employment report. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9534 and a high of 1.9734 before closing the day at 1.9708 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May UK PPI Input forecast at 2.6%
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded in a tight range pivoting the .9600 level although finished the week bid on a very strong rally in commodities. AUD/JPY made fresh highs at 102 before the falling equities took its toll. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9566 and a high of 0.9642 before closing the day at 0.9633 in the New York session.
·Gold (XAU) had a volatile trading day tracking Oil higher on broad USD weakness and inflation concerns. Overall trading with a low of $877 and high of $901 ending the New York session at $901 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.5366 |
1.5573 |
1.5575 |
1.5818 |
1.5891 |
|
USD/JPY |
103.88 |
104.54 |
105.10 |
106.43 |
106.65 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.9463 |
1.9538 |
1.9680 |
1.9741 |
1.9816 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9488 |
0.9564 |
0.9620 |
0.9643 |
0.9655 |
|
XAU/USD |
865.00 |
877.65 |
900.00 |
909.85 |
930.90 |
·Euro – 1.5575
Initial support at 1.5573 (Jun 6 low) followed by 1.5366 (Jun 5 reaction low). Initial resistance is now located 1.5818 (May 27 High) at followed by 1.5891 (April 24 high).
·Yen – 105.10
Initial support is located at 104.54 (June 4 low) followed by 103.88 (Jun 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 106.43 (Jun 5 high) followed by 106.65 (Feb 28 high).
·Pound – 1.9680
Initial support at 1.9538 (Jun 6 low) followed by 1.9463 (Jun 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9741 (Jun 3 high) followed by 1.9816 (Jun 2 high)
·Australian Dollar – 0.9620
Initial support at .9564 (Jun 6 low) followed by 0.9488 (Jun 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9643 (Jun 6 high) followed by 0.9655 (May 21 high).
·Gold – 900
Initial support at 877.65 (Jun 6 low) followed by 865 (Jun 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 909.85 (May 28 high) followed by 930.9 (May 27 high).
