Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 04/08/2008

US Payrolls data mixed, Greenback finding support.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 4th August 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the much anticipated July Nonfarm Payrolls failed to impact the markets as the data came in mixed. Employment change of -51K was better than the -75K expected but the Unemployment rate notched up to 5.7% from 5.6% in Jun. Also released the July Manufacturing ISM beating expectations at 50 vs. 49.3 forecast. The USD on the whole was slightly better bid even as stocks weakened and Oil gained. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 14 points (-0.65%) and the Dow Jones was down -51 points (-0.45%). Crude Oil closed up $1.02 ending the New York session at $125.10 per barrel. Looking ahead, June Core PCE m/m expected at 0.2% and June Factory Orders seen at 0.7%.

·The Euro (EUR) was initially sold after US Jobs data but recovered as Oil moved higher. Also hurting sentiment was the June German Retail Sales down 1.4% vs. expectations of -0.5%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5514 and a high of 1.5604 before closing the day at 1.5544 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June PPI forecast at 0.8% m/m and 7.9% y/y.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained against most currencies as carry trades were unwound with only the USD remaining near opening levels. AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY continued to make new lows. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.28 and a high of 107.89 before closing the day around 107.69 in the New York session.

·The Sterling (GBP) was on the back foot as Manufacturing PMI fell to 44.3 in July and the USD was broadly bid. Ongoing concern about the UK economy heading into the MPC meeting weighed. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9729 and a high of 1.9841 before closing the day at 1.9735 in the New York session.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended falls as the market speculation of rate cuts hit fever pitch. The RBA meets on Tuesday and is expected to hold rates at 7.25%. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low 0.9293 and a high of 0.9417 before closing the US session at 0.9296.

·Gold (XAU) continued to fall as the USD strengthened, unable to sustain gains on the back of a rally in Oil. Overall trading with a low of USD$902.90 and high of USD$916.90 ending the New York session at USD$910 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.5565

Initial support at 1.5515 (Aug 1 low) followed by 1.5493 (June 30 low). Initial resistance is now located 1.5603 (Aug 1 high) at followed by 1.5710 (76.4% retracement of the 1.5303 to 1.6038 advance).

·Yen – 107.55

Initial support is located at 107.29 (Aug 1 low) followed by 106.58 (July 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 107.91 (Aug 1 high) followed by 108.38 (Jul 31 high).

·Pound – 1.9745

Initial support at 1.9728 (Aug 1 low) followed by 1.9650 (July 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9842 (Aug 1 high) followed by 1.9929 (July 31 high).

·Australian Dollar – 0.9290

Initial support at 0.9276 (61.8% retrace 0.8953 to 0.9849) followed by 0.9206 (May 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9419 (Aug 1 high) followed by 0.9476 (July 31 High).

·Gold – 910

Initial support at 902.5 (Aug 1 low) followed by 894.5 (July 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 925.2 (July 31 high) followed by 935.30 (July 25 high).