Progress on US Bailout spurs market optimism and Dollar gains.
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 26thSeptember 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) buoyant stocks and confidence in the progression of the Bailout lead to a USD rally. Dollar Strength was in spite of rallying Oil and very weak US data. Durable Good Orders fell -4.5% in August vs. a much milder -1.1% forecast. Also released, August New Homes at 460K vs. 510K expected. Weekly Jobs data also jumped to 493K vs. 450K forecast. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 30 points (1.43%) and the Dow Jones was up 196.89 points (1.82%). Crude Oil closed gained $108.02 ending the New York session at $105.65 per barrel. Looking ahead, Final Q2 GDP expected at 3.3% and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected at 71 in September.
·The Euro (EUR) although initially bid into the US open on weak US data the Euro fell heavily for the remaining part of the day on speculation that the Bailout plan was close to implementation. Bounced off lows as oil popped higher into the US close. German GFK consumer climate was slightly better at 1.8 vs. 1.3 expected in October. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4561 and a high of 1.4769 before closing the day at 1.4620 in the New York session. Looking ahead, German Import prices seen -1% in August.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) sold as Stocks rallied but USD/JPY was unable to hold the inflated levels as equities came off their highs and no more news was released about the Bailout. The crosses were well bid as well. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 105.47 and a high of 107.03 before closing the day around 106.40 in the New York session. UPDATE Japan Core CPI unchanged at 2.4% in August.
·The Sterling (GBP) fell heavily as it broke the downside support at 1.8500 on USD strength. Cable was the heaviest against the USD yesterday as UK fundamentals still point to a weak economic picture. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.8305 and a high of 1.8672 before closing the day at 1.8400 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) stayed inside the recent range initially being able to trade above 0.8400 on increasing risk appetite and AUD/JPY support. Closed lower due to an increase in USD demand but was well supported on the crosses. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8316 and a high of 0.8428 before closing the US session at 0.8360.
·Gold (XAU) dropped as stocks gained and the USD strengthened. Rebounded off lows as Oil shot higher into the US close. Overall trading with a low of USD$864.80 and high of USD$896.60 before ending the New York session at USD$878 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4437 |
1.4562 |
1.4640 |
1.4768 |
1.4908 |
|
USD/JPY |
103.54 |
105.15 |
106.35 |
107.02 |
107.47 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.8202 |
1.8265 |
1.8405 |
1.8664 |
1.8795 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8011 |
0.8279 |
0.8365 |
0.8469 |
0.8519 |
|
XAU/USD |
825.12 |
862.80 |
878.00 |
909.80 |
919.00 |
·Euro – 1.4640
Initial support at 1.4562 (Sept 25 low) followed by 1.4437 (Sept 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4768 (Sept 25 high) at followed by 1.4908 (Aug 22 high).
·Yen – 106.35
Initial support is located at 105.15 (Sept 22 low) followed by 103.54 (Sept 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 107.02 (Sep 25 high) followed by 107.47 (Sept 22 high).
·Pound – 1.8405
Initial support at 1.8265 (Sept 22 low) followed by 1.8202 (38.2% retrace 1.7447 to 1.8668). Initial resistance is now at 1.8664 (Sep 25 high) followed by 1.8795 (Aug 21 High).
·Australian Dollar – 0.8365
Initial support at 0.8279 (Sept 23 low) followed by the 0.8011 (Sep 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8469 (Sept 23 high) followed by 0.8519 (Sept 22 high).
·Gold – 878
Initial support at 862.8 (Sept 22 low) followed by 825.12 (Sept 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 909.8 (Sep 23 high) followed by 919 (Sept 18 high).
