US Jobs fall 240 000 in October
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 10th November 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had a mixed day with the strong uptrend put on hold by terrible unemployment data. October Non Farm Payrolls dropped -240K vs. -200k expected and the Unemployment rate jumped to 6.5%. Pending Home Sales fell -4.6% above the -3.4% forecast. After two days of heavy losses on the stockmarket investors shrugged off the data and sent stocks higher into the weekend. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 38.70 points (2.41%) and the Dow Jones was up 248 points (2.85%). Crude Oil closed up $0.27 ending the New York session at $61.04 per barrel.
·The Euro (EUR) was under pressure initially during Asia but as Tokyo stocks turned around so did the Euros fortunes. The strength was maintained as US data was very weak and Stocks held gains. German Industrial Production was worse than expected at -3.6% in September. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2664 and a high of 1.2951 before closing the day at 1.2745 in the New York session. Looking ahead, November Sentix are expected at -34 vs. -28 previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) initially very strong going into the Asian open but was unable to hold these gains as the Nikkei turned around and risk sentiment improved. The Crosses recovered sharply with the EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY all staging decent rallies. Initial strength on poor US jobs numbers was reversed as equities rallied in the US. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 96.77 and a high of 98.68 before closing the day around 98.12 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) volatility continued with initial weakness in the pound on the back of Thursday’s 1.5% rate cut. As equities reverse though the pound found some buyers and the GBP/JPY lead the recovery. Aggressively lower interest rates are bringing hope that the UK recession may not be as bad as markets are predicting. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.5537 and a high of 1.5880 before closing the day at 1.5650 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October PPI is expected at -0.4%.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) came under severe pressure early in Asia when Oil dropped below $60 a barrel. Joined the majors in recovering well but was extremely volatile during the US session as poor data was absorbed by the market. The Aussie continues to express market sentiment and follows stocks movement very closely. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6545 and a high of 0.6789 before closing the US session at 0.6740.
·Gold (XAU) moved lower with Oil initially before finding some buyers and tracking USD weakness higher. The range was relatively low when compared to other days. Overall trading with a low of USD$727 and high of USD$743 before ending the New York session at USD$737 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2329 |
1.2526 |
1.2818 |
1.2956 |
1.3116 |
|
USD/JPY |
96.08 |
96.36 |
98.94 |
99.92 |
100.57 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5269 |
1.5402 |
1.5795 |
1.6197 |
1.6264 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6339 |
0.6546 |
0.6870 |
0.7065 |
0.7239 |
|
XAU/USD |
707.50 |
718.25 |
748.00 |
777.50 |
803.30 |
·Euro – 1.2818
Initial support at 1.2526 (Nov 4 low) followed by 1.2329 (Oct 28 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2956 (Nov 6 High) at followed by 1.3116 (76.4% retrace 1.3298 to 1.2526)
·Yen – 98.94
Initial support is located at 96.36 (Oct 31 low) followed by 96.08 (Oct 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.92 (Nov 5 high) followed by 100.57 (Oct 22 high).
·Pound – 1.5795
Initial support at 1.5402 (Oct 28 low) followed by 1.5269 (Oct 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6167 (Nov 5) followed by 1.6264 (61.8% retrace 1.6672 to 1.5604).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6870
Initial support at 0.6546 (Nov 7 low) followed by the 0.6339 (Oct 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7065 (Oct 20 high) followed by 0.7239 (Oct 14 high).
·Gold – 748
Initial support at 718 (61.8% retrace 777.90-682.41) followed by 707 (Oct 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 777.5 (Oct 30 high) followed by 803.65 (Oct 21 Level).
