Late Dow Surge Reverse Mood and Direction
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 14th November 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) USD gave up a lot the strength at the end of the US session as the Dow Jones rallied over 900 points off lows. Weekly Jobless claims rose above 500K to 516K vs. 484K expected. Also Released September International Trade at -56Bn vs. -59Bn previously. The majors are tracking movement in US equities very closely so when the Dow dropped below 8000 the USD was at maximum strength. The U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 97 points (6.50%) and the Dow Jones was up 552 points (6.67%). Crude Oil closed up $2.08 ending the New York session at $58.20 per barrel. Looking ahead, October Retails Sales are expected to fall -2% vs. -1.2% previously. Import Prices are expected to have fallen -4.2%. November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected at 56 vs. 57.6 previously.
·The Euro (EUR) had a very interesting trading day initially underwater and on a very weak footing below 1.2500. Germany was confirmed to be in recession with Q3 GDP seen at -0.5% vs. -0.4%. Initially the Euro was very weak after this data but as stocks surged higher so did the Euro which rallied above resistance at 1.2800. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2391 and a high of 1.2857 before closing the day at 1.2810 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October CPI is expected at -0.2% vs. -0.1%. Eurozone GDP is seen at -0.2% in Q3.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) had another extremely volatile day as the markets mood turns from bleak to glee in the final hours of trading. USD/JPY traded over 3 big figures higher to the upside. The EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY were extremely buoyant. Focus will be on the G20 meeting over the weekend for the next direction in the Yen. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 94.82 and a high of 98.26 before closing the day around 97.80 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) broke with the normal correlations seen as sterling was unable to gain as Equities surged higher. The market has turned extremely bearish against the Pound lately and things are not likely to get better going forward unless things change considerably. Almost all currencies gained against the pound yesterday, especially its major trading partner in Europe which hit record levels above .8600. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4561 and a high of 1.4991 before closing the day at 1.4902 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied nearly all day as traders were very tentative about testing below .6350 as the Reserve bank of Australia was reportedly on the bid down there. Liquidity is still very low and moves are exaggerated. Commodities rebounded and this helped to underpin the move higher late in the US session. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6341 and a high of 0.6694 before closing the US session at 0.6650.
·Gold (XAU) Climbed as Oil jumped higher but is not as precious as it use to be in a world seen heading into a low inflationary state. Overall trading with a low of USD$702.25 and high of USD$739.55 before ending the New York session at USD$736 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2230 |
1.2438 |
1.2745 |
1.2855 |
1.2930 |
|
USD/JPY |
93.20 |
94.48 |
97.15 |
98.08 |
99.48 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4393 |
1.4558 |
1.4820 |
1.4992 |
1.5481 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6246 |
0.6339 |
0.6590 |
0.6758 |
0.6986 |
|
XAU/USD |
682.41 |
700.00 |
729.00 |
739.17 |
750.45 |
·Euro – 1.2745
Initial support at 1.2438 (Nov 13 low) followed by 1.2333 (Oct 28 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2855 (Nov 13 low) at followed by 1.2930 (Nov 10 high)
·Yen – 97.15
Initial support is located at 94.48 (Nov 12 low) followed by 93.20 (76.4% retracement of 90.92-100.57 rally). Initial resistance is now at 98.08 (Nov 12 high) followed by 99.48 (Nov 10 high).
·Pound – 1.4820
Initial support at 1.4558 (Nov 13 low) followed by 1.4393 (Range protection). Initial resistance is now at 1.4992 (Nov 1 high) followed by 1.5481 (Nov 12 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6590
Initial support at 0.6339 (Oct 29 low) followed by the 0.6246 (76.4% retracement of 0.6009-0.7015 rally). Initial resistance is now at 0.6758 (Nov 11 high) followed by 0.6986 (Nov 10 high).
·Gold – 729
Initial support at 700 (Nov 13 low) followed by 682 (Oct 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 739 (Nov 12 high) followed by 750.45 (Nov 11 high).
