Calm Markets with US away, Black Friday today
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 28th November 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with US away on Thanksgiving Holidays the market saw compressed range bound trading. No data was released and US Stock markets were closed. Crude Oil closed down $0.40 ending the New York session at $54.00 per barrel. Looking ahead, Black Friday shopping in the US today.
·The Euro (EUR) kept to inside yesterday’s range as the market consolidated the move higher and waited for more direction. As the volatility decreases, there is potential for a retracement as risk aversion should also come off. On the data front, German Unemployment change in November beat expectations dropping -10k vs. -4K previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2862 and a high of 1.2967 before closing the day at 1.2895. Looking ahead, November CPI is expected at 2.3% vs. 3.2%. Also released October Eurozone Unemployment expected at 7.6% vs. 7.5% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) was unable to break out of the 95-96 with little direction given that US stocks were closed. Released early Asia on Friday was a host of Economic data that points to more downside risks for Japan. October Household Spending was at -3.8% vs. -3.4% forecast. Retails Sales dropped -0.6% y/y and Industrial Production dropped -3.1% m/m. CPI dropped to 1.9%y/y as petrol hit 3 year lows in Japan. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.02 and a high of 95.70 before closing the day around 95.50 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October Housing Starts are expected at 29.3 vs. 54.2 previously.
·The Sterling (GBP) was the most volatile pair last night as 1.55 was once again tested before easing back to support at 1.5400. The November Consumer Confidence fell further to -38 vs. -36 previously. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.5316 and a high of 1.5511 before closing the day at 1.5410 in the New York session. Looking ahead, November CBI Orders forecast at -35 vs. -27 previous.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very buoyant as technical charts suggested that an uptrend could be underway as soon as resistance at .6600 was cleared away. The AUD/USD has not retraced much of its large losses over the last 2 months and a settling in financial markets could provide the catalyst to test the topside. Next week’s RBA meeting is the major event risk for the AUD before Christmas. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6480 and a high of 0.6601 before closing the US session at 0.6554.
·Gold (XAU) was extremely quiet holding above the $810 support searching for new direction. Overall trading with a low of USD$811 and high of USD$817 before ending the New York session at USD$815 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2568 |
1.2804 |
1.2895 |
1.3081 |
1.3116 |
|
USD/JPY |
93.62 |
94.94 |
95.55 |
97.43 |
97.55 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4984 |
1.5176 |
1.5380 |
1.5534 |
1.5703 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6232 |
0.6333 |
0.6560 |
0.6618 |
0.6696 |
|
XAU/USD |
743.00 |
786.00 |
813.00 |
856.59 |
871.00 |
·Euro – 1.2895
Initial support at 1.2804 (Nov 25 low) followed by 1.2568 (Nov 24 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3081 (Nov 25 low) at followed by 1.3116 (Nov 5 high)
·Yen – 95.55
Initial support is located at 94.94 (Nov 24 low) followed by 93.62 (Nov 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.43 (Nov 25 high) followed by 97.55 (Nov 17 high).
·Pound – 1.5380
Initial support at 1.5176 (Nov 26 low) followed by 1.4984 (Nov 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5534 (Nov 34 level) followed by 1.5703 (Nov 11 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6560
Initial support at 0.6333 (Nov 25 low) followed by the 0.6232 (Nov 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6618 (Nov 25 high) followed by 0.6696 (Nov 14 high).
·Gold – 813
Initial support at 786 (Nov 24 low) followed by 743 (Nov 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 856 (Oct 15 high) followed by 871 (Oct 13).
